787
FXUS61 KGYX 131046
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
646 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and sunny today as flow shifts to the southwest. A cold
front crosses New England on Friday, bringing the risk for some
severe storms and locally heavy rainfall. High pressure builds
in behind the front for the weekend. The high moves offshore
early next week, setting up a moderating trend with warm temps
and heat increasingly likely next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM...Just a quick update to adjust to current T/Td and to
tweak the early morning fog which should burn off by 8 AM
everywhere.

Previously...Finally, the persistent 500 MB closed low weakens
and shifts NE through Newfoundland and Labrador today, allowing
for more zonal flow, and more aligned flow down to the sfc with
SW flow developing. So, after some morning fog, this will lead
to a sunny and warmer day, although cooler along the mid coast,
and late developing sea breezes from Casco Bay S, will keep the
coast a little cooler. Highs range from the low 70s on the mid
coast to 75-80 in the mtns and the NH and SW ME coast, to the
low to mid 80s other inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
S-SW flow gradient tightens up ahead of approaching cold front
overnight, and this should keep some light flow going at all but
the most sheltered areas, so this will make for a milder night,
with increasing highs clouds, and lows around 60 in the mtns
and the mid coast to the mid 60s in S NH.

On Friday, that front will move in from the NW starting about
midday and track through the CWA during the afternoon exiting in
the early evening. Highs of 80-85 can be expected, and the coast
will be warm as well with increasing SW flow in advance of the
front. With clouds and showers arriving earlier in the day the
mtns will likely top out in the mid to upper 70s. Given the dent
height fall just ahead of the sfc front, and the good
instability generated outside the mtns with Tds climbing into
the mid 60s, and temps in the low to mid 80s, there is potential
for severe storms Fri afternoon. There is decent capping ahead
of the front, and good deep layer shear of 60-80 kts, so the
threat is there. Of course our usual weak mid level lapse rates
will work against severe, but the threat is there S of the mtns,
and is best over S NH and into interior SW ME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind the front for the weekend,
bringing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures for Saturday
and Sunday. The high then moves offshore by early next week,
helping to set up a warm southwesterly flow with moderating
temperatures.

A ridge builds across the Northeast much of next week, with
increasing confidence for significant heat next week. Highs in
the 90s look likely by Tuesday in many spots, and likely
continue to climb on Wednesday. Dew points will also be on the
rise Tuesday and Wednesday, with dew points likely pushing 70
degrees by Wednesday. This give heat indices in the upper 90s to
low 100s by Wednesday.

This heat is still about a week away, and there are still
several factors that could disrupt to core of the heat, such as
an MCS or increased cloud cover running around the ridge.
However, ensembles look to be trending toward the warmer
solutions with several days of heat looking increasingly likely.
Lows also look to remain in the 70s across southern and coastal
areas starting Wednesday night, so nighttime recovery doesn`t
look substantial either. We`ll continue to monitor it over the
next few days, but that`s how things look to be trending at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Patchy fog this morning could affect almost any
terminals as we head toward sunrise, but any fog should break
up and return to VFR by 12Z. Otherwise expected VFR today into
Friday morning, as increasing SW flow will likely prevent any
fog tonight. Friday will see a line of thunderstorms move
through in the afternoon, with tempo flight restrictions and
potential strong gusty winds and hail.

Long Term...VFR then prevails from Friday night through early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...S-SW winds begin to increase this afternoon and
will likely see gusts to 25 kt and seas to 5 ft late tonight
through Friday in advance of a cold front. The cold front
crosses the waters Fri evening, and winds/seas will diminish.


Long Term...Fair conditions are then expected for the weekend
and early next week as high pressure settles along the Eastern
Seaboard.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Clair