Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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460 FXUS64 KHGX 130446 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Showers and thunderstorms so far today have been confined to our coastal and far western counties as the shortwave/trof axis sags southward. Locally heavy rainfall has been observed with the slower moving activity (Angleton got another 1.25" on top of yesterday`s 1.82"). Boundary collisions (outflow and sea breeze) and afternoon heating could allow for activity to spread/build further east this afternoon (starting to see a shower or two beginning to pop up near Houston Hobby), and locally heavy rain will still be possible with any of the stronger and/or slower moving storms. Things should quiet down this evening with the loss of heating, and most of the area should stay quiet overnight (cannot rule out possible fog development). Rain chances are lower tomorrow as ridging/subsidence builds in from the north and northeast, and most if not all of the convection is expected to remain near and to the south of the I-10 corridor with the greatest concentration likely focusing across our coastal counties. Anything that does develop will dissipate in the evening, and Thursday night will be quiet. This afternoon`s temperatures range from the 70s/80s in and close to the rain areas to the 90s where sun has been abundant. Tonight`s and tomorrow night`s lows will cool into the 70s inland and close to 80 at the coast. Thursday`s highs will be warmer (less clouds and rains)...back into the 90s almost areawide. 42 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 In terms of Friday, ridging aloft will increase having an effect on the expected maximum temperatures. We will see a rise of the maximum temperatures to around 95F. This will cause the heat index to be in the low and mid 100s. The minimum shouldn`t be greatly effected and will remain at 70-75F all throughout the week. No storms or showers are predicted to occur until some tropical moisture moves over our area Sunday evening. This moisture will bring with it a chance of thunderstorms along with a potential for locally heavy rainfall. As of now, the current rainfall forecast is 2-4" south of I-10 and 1-2" north of I-10. These possible storms could last all the way till Wednesday if this tropical moisture plume develops. Keep in mind that this forecast will likely change as the storm gets closer. More details on these possible thunderstorms is described in the "Tropical" portion of this discussion. Temperature will also decrease to being a maximum around 90F once this moisture moves into our area. There will be relatively little change to wind conditions throughout the week as they remain to be onshore with a speed around 5-15mph. With these calm winds and high moisture content, be aware of some possible early morning patchy fog. Cloud cover will be scattered for the next few days, until the tropical moisture brings some overcast clouds to our area on Sunday evening. Thompson/Batiste && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Light and variable winds will persist through mid morning before becoming easterly then southeasterly through the day at around 6-9kt. There will be some patchy fog developing tonight, bringing visibilities down to 3-6mi at times, with greater potential of development occuring at CXO, UTS, CLL, and LBX. Any fog that develops will dissipate after sunrise, though there will be some SCT low level clouds through the late morning/early afternoon around 2500ft. VFR conditions prevail through the day with some isolated shower and thunderstorm possible along the coast (though with much less coverage than the previous few days). Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Onshore winds with a speed of 5-15 knots should be expected throughout the week. Wave heights will be around 2 feet for the next couple of days until we reach Sunday evening. Throughout Sunday and Monday, wave heights will gradually increase to around 8-10 feet on Tuesday morning. Caution flags/advisories are possible with the winds and seas experiencing a notable increase. There is also a possibility for showers and thunderstorms starting on Sunday evening and finally ending by Wednesday. Thompson/Batiste && .TROPICAL... Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The National Hurricane Center is monitoring for the potential for a broad surface low in the Bay of Campeche to develop into a tropical cyclone late in the weekend into early next week. As of 1pm CDT today, the NHC has outlined the formation chance at 30% over the next 7 days. The movement of this system is expected to be westward or west-northward which at the moment looks to take it into the northeastern Mexico coastline. Regardless if this system has a name attached to it or not, we`re still looking at an influx of deeper tropical moisture being sent towards the Texas Gulf coast which will bring an increase in rain chances for at least the first half of next week. Keep in mind that some areas have not yet fully recovered from the previous heavy rain events from earlier in the spring. As of right now, model consensus points toward most of the rain falling near and along the coast with ~2-4" along and south of I-10. We`re also anticipating elevated tides and an increased risk in rip currents next week as well. This is all still multiple days out, so there`s plenty of time for things to change. This section of the discussion will only be updated as needed, so be sure to keep track of the latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 92 73 94 / 30 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 93 74 94 / 30 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 80 89 80 90 / 30 20 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Batiste