644
FXUS64 KHGX 101726
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The weather pattern for SE TX is expected to be an active one for
the start of the week. The increasingly NWly flow aloft will help to
bring a series of shortwaves down from the Southern Plains into the
area. This combined with a weak front stalling just north of the FA
as well as deepening PWs (up to 2"), the sea/bay breeze(s), as well
as abundant daytime heating is going to account for scattered acti-
vity through this afternoon...and again for tomorrow.

However, of note for the short-term, there`s a decent shot for some
strong storms heading into Tues night. Models continue to advertise
the possibility of storms forming in/around Central TX with the ar-
rival/passage of a fairly well-defined short-wave...which could then
lead to the development of an MCS. This system is progged to move E
and SE through Weds morning.

As for temperatures, highs will be somewhat tempered by the clouds/
diurnal storms, with readings likely in the lower 90s for today and
tomorrow. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 70s for a
good part of the CWA...near 80 at the beaches. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Global deterministic models continue to show discrepancies in
their depiction of the approach of the next midlevel trough and
potential associated MCS, with GFS continuing to present the more
progressive solution which shows the system offshore by Wednesday
morning. Regardless of the system`s exact mesoscale evolution,
the potential complex of storms is likely to be at the very least
on a diminishing trend as we head into Wednesday with lingering
shower and storm activity associated with the passing shortwave
possible into the afternoon. With upper ridging building back into
the South Central CONUS as we head into the end of the week,
shower/storm chances will be limited by the presence of a
subsidence inversion. Any developing storms are likely to be
largely isolated in nature and tied to diurnal boundaries (sea
breeze, bay breeze, etc). As such, have maintained the low PoP
forecast for Thurs - Sat.

Things become quite a bit more uncertain heading into next weekend
as global models continue to show the development of a weak area
of low pressure near the Yucatan Peninsula/Bay of Campeche towards
the end of the weekend. The exact track of this potential system
is still hard to pinpoint and will depend heavily on its
genesis location and the exact positioning of the aforementioned
ridge as we head into the beginning of next week. Still, it`s
something to keep an eye on as we could see more widespread
rainfall as early as Sunday as the system potentially pushes into
the Central Gulf.

Temperatures will remain on a generally increasing trend over the
course of the remainder of the week as the return of stronger
ridging allows for daily high temperatures to approach the upper
90s. Still, with a weaker and more easterly prevailing surface
low, slight decreases to the surface dew point are likely to keep
heat indicies below advisory levels for the time being. Expect
some local variability in observed temperatures at times depending
on the exact development locations of scattered storms.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Seeing SCT SHRA and isolated TSRA across southeast and northern
areas. With further heating, will likely see more TSRA coverage
later this aft, espcially central areas. Have VCSH and VCTS at
TAF sites this aft. Expecting most activity to dissipate in the
23Z to 1Z window. Tomorrow, expect another day of SCT SHRA/TSRA
with heating. Also expecting some MVFR BR at CXO and LBX late
tonight.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Relatively light winds and low seas prevail throughout the
duration of the week, with scattered showers and storms remaining
in the forecast through at least the first half of the week. A
brief shift to east winds is possible on Tuesday as a surface
boundary approaches the coast. There remains a great deal of
uncertainty surrounding the potential development of a low
pressure system in the Bay of Campeche over the upcoming weekend,
but for the time being it`s something to monitor as our next
source of more widespread rainfall.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  90  72  86 /  30  20  30  30
Houston (IAH)  75  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  30
Galveston (GLS)  79  87  79  87 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Cady