Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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508 FXUS64 KHGX 080836 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 336 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 There should be some subtle changes to the forecast this weekend for SE TX as high pressure moves east of the area. This will allow for a deepening onshore flow to develop, and in turn, a return of moisture/ humidity at the low levels. These strengthening SE winds should also help to knock daytime temperatures down a couple of degrees...as the highs today range from the lower to mid 90s, to "just" the lower 90s for tomorrow. For tonight, this increased WAA could be enough for the formation of some isolated streamer showers by early Sun morning. However, probab- ly not going to add any mention at this time. Otherwise, lows should run in the lower to mid 70s tonight and tomorrow night. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 We transition to a more active pattern heading into next week as the prevailing 500mb ridge loses its foothold over the area. With midlevel flow becoming more zonal in nature, a series of shortwaves will be allowed to swing into the South Central CONUS, bringing us our next chance of widespread showers and storms. Guidance has backed off on its previous depiction of a surface frontal boundary pushing through the area and offshore on Monday, instead now stalling the boundary somewhere north of the I-10 corridor during the evening hours. This should nonetheless be sufficient to trigger some showers and storms given the robust moisture availability and SBCAPE values in the vicinity of 1500 J/kg. Rain chances will be compounded by the potential for diurnally driven showers and storms along the advancing sea/bay breezes. Further periods of active weather are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with Tuesday evening a particular focus at the moment as models continue to show the approach of an amplified shortwave that could support the development of some stronger storms and/or a MCS. There`s enough variability still present across global deterministic models that PoPs remain relatively low, but this will need to be monitored closely in the coming days. Upper ridging will build back into the area on Thu/Fri, resulting in lower rain chances. Temperatures will remain generally in the mid 90s area-wide, with overnight lows near 80 possible. Overnight lows will continue to sit in the mid-70s. While heat index values are still below our local criteria for an Advisory, it`ll still be important to consider heat safety precaution if spending a lot of time outdoors. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR with winds light/variable overnight then S to SE around 8-12 knots during the day tomorrow. Decreasing SE winds heading into tomorrow evening. Could see some late night through early morning fog development, both tonight and tomorrow night. Tomorrow night looks like our next best chance of the MVFR ceiling development. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Light winds and low seas will persist in the immediate term, with rainfall chances returning to the forecast late on Sunday and remaining in place through mid-week. Scattered showers and storms may occasionally produce strong wind gusts, but wind speeds should otherwise remain below caution thresholds. Rainfall chances look to diminish on Thursday. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 74 92 74 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 94 76 92 75 / 0 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 87 80 87 79 / 0 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...42 MARINE...Cady