512
FXUS64 KHGX 121140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Summery conditions prevail through the rest of the week - today
looks to feature another round of scattered showers and storms
around the area, along with potential for some waterspouts on the
Gulf. Rainfall potential will decrease into the end of the week,
letting hotter temperatures take center stage into Saturday.

While Friday and Saturday heat does not currently look extreme
enough to cause significant concern for needing advisories or
warnings, it is still quite hot, and if you are sensitive to heat
and plan to spend significant time outdoors and/or exerting
yourself, it will be wise to keep heat safety front of mind.

From Sunday onward into the new week, a more unsettled weather
pattern looks to reign. Though there are whispers and some hints
that tropical things may be afoot, whether or not anything with a
name actually develops does not significantly change the broad
expectations for next week`s weather. Either way, we are looking
at potential for increased showers and storms, locally heavy rain,
and some gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Will be maintaining elevated rain chances today, but we should start
to see a drying trend by tomorrow.

For today, the stationary surface boundary lingering over the south-
ern CWFA will remain one of the foci for development, along with the
everpresent likelihood of the sea/bay breezes, and whatever leftover
boundaries that have survived from yesterday. As for triggers, there
is still the slow moving mid/upper shortwave moving in from the W/NW
and abundant daytime heating. So, when combined with the deep moist-
ure already in place (PWs around 2"), it is looking like another day
of widespread showers and thunderstorms across SE TX. And with these
rains, per WPC much of the CWA will remain in a Marginal Risk of Ex-
cessive Rain through this afternoon (level 1 of 4). This will mainly
due to the rains the last few days. Activity should be decreasing by
this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Tomorrow...building surface high pressure over the Mississippi River
Valley will begin to influence rain chances down here as it helps to
push any activity that does form to mainly our S/SW counties. So the
best chances for development will be along/near the stationary front
still lingering along the coast and/or the sea and bay breezes. But,
unfortunately, these decreasing POPs will translate warmer temperat-
ures for Thurs afternoon. Highs today are going to remain influenced
by possible rains...with readings generally in the lower to mid 90s.
For tomorrow, highs will be mostly around the mid 90s, with spots in
the upper 90s possible. This should also translate to slightly high-
er heat index values as they climb to around 100F through Thurs aft-
ernoon. Overnight lows will run from the lower to mid 70s across the
CWA...near 80 along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Friday and Saturday should feature less convective development,
and a couple of days that focus a little more on temperatures that
are back to being modestly above seasonal averages. Highs in the
middle 90s should become more common around the area, and some
hot spots can be expected to push into the upper 90s. Heat index
values look top out in the 97-105 range on Friday, and drift
upwards into the 100-107 range on Saturday.

As is really so frequently the case in Southeast Texas, we`ll be
looking at a couple of days that may or may not prompt any sort of
advisory for the heat, but will be hot enough that there is some
danger for those particularly sensitive to heat, do not take
precautions to mitigate the impact of heat, or find themselves
stuck in situation where they simply cannot get a break from the
heat. To add context to this, the experimental HeatRisk concept,
which is well suited to putting heat waves in a historical context
with maximum and minimum temperatures along with CDC data, these
days fall into a minor to moderate risk level - levels 2 and 3 of
a 5 level system. Another experimental forecast tool, the Wet
Bulb Globe Temperature, focuses on the mix of temperature,
humidity, solar intensity, and wind, and is well-suited to
describing threats to those doing physical work in outdoor
situations without the ability to shade. On both days, the risk
here is described as high across the area, a threat level 4 on a
5 level scale. As a summary of taking this multi-angle look at the
heat concern this weekend, it would be fair to say that it will be
hot; probably hotter than usual for mid-June, but within the
typical range of summer heat; and the greatest threat will be for
those exerting themselves physically without shade.

Alright, after all those words on heat threats for Friday and
Saturday, we make a transition on Sunday - where heat may still
be the focus into the early afternoon, but a surge of moist Gulf
air shifts us back to a focus on showers and thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon into the new week. The mid-level ridge that stretches
across the southern tier of the US at the beginning of this period
looks to break down some over Texas as a trough pushes over the
Bay of Campeche. Daily rounds of unsettled weather can be expected
each day through the rest of the period. On the plus side, the
increase in clouds and rain should nudge temperatures back down to
more seasonable levels. That comes at the risk of some of these
storms producing locally heavy rainfall.

And...then...of course, as much as I don`t want to think about
tropical cyclones yet, it is June and making this analysis on
stormy regions with potential low pressure centers in the Gulf is
going to be a necessity. Ultimately, yes, there are some boxes
checked that indicate we`ll need to keep an eye on what happens
out over the Gulf next week. But also...we`d need to do that
whether a tropical cyclone were guaranteed to happen or even not
happen. Either way, if this plume of deep Gulf moisture pushes
over our area, we`ve got to be mindful of possible heavy rain over
an area that`s already seen so much rain this spring. Whether it
has a name or not is kind of...irrelevant for now. For what its
worth, it does seem that the deterministic guidance has some less
spread in it than yesterday, and may fix the focus of some more
towards the SW Gulf. But for us living here, we`ll be fixed on the
potential for a rainier, stormier pattern...if there`s a name
attached to it or not.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Currently monitoring the approach of showers/thunderstorms from the
NW this morning. Extrapolated timing has the activity tracking into
the CLL terminal in the next hour or so...to IAH around 18Z (should
it hold together). Regardless, as the day progresses, it or its rem-
nants should then help with further development for the rest of the
CWA. Will keep the mention of precipitation as VCTS/VCSH for now...
adding TEMPO groups as needed. Activity should dissipate by tonight
(with the loss of heating) with patchy fog possible overnight. Rain
chances could be a bit lower for tomorrow. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Generally light onshore flow and low seas should prevail through
the end of the week. We may also expect the potential for
additional waterspouts around the Gulf Coast for at least today.
There will be a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Some storms may produce locally higher winds and
seas. Anticipate stronger winds and a corresponding increase in
seas, along with increased potential for showers and thunderstorms
next week.

At the shore, lighter onshore flow typically corresponds to a more
moderate risk for rip currents, and tides that are modestly above
astronomical tidal levels. This is indeed the expectation through
this week. As winds are expected to strengthen next week, we can
also anticipate an increase in rip current risk and tidal levels.
Numerical guidance does indeed indicate an increase in rip
current danger, and tidal guidance does not yet extend to this
period of higher winds, so increases in both would be a fair
inference to make for next week, but difficult to say with a lot
of certainty just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  89  73  92  72 /  30  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  90  74  93  73 /  30  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  80  89  80 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Luchs