Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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283 FXUS64 KHGX 061731 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 For the most part, warm quiet weather will prevail across SE TX for the short term. Ridging aloft will continue to amplify across W TX/ NM the next couple of days with weak surface high pressure persist- ing over the region. Slightly lower dewpoints (in the wake of a now stationary boundary) along with the mostly clear skies will help to give us warm (slightly above normal) daytime temperatures (highs in the lower to mid 90s) with heat index values ranging from 100F-105F during the afternoons. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s across much of the CWA (to the upper 70s at the immediate coast). A return of light onshore winds could add a couple of degrees to these read- ings for tomorrow night. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The dominant upper ridge will remain in place through the weekend, with hot and humid but otherwise rain-free conditions expected to prevail through Sunday. Diurnal thunderstorm activity will struggle to develop under the influence of a pronounced midlevel capping inversion, which has kept the PoP forecast near zero through the end of the weekend. The main concern instead will be heat, with high temperatures on both days reaching the low to mid 90s while dew points sit in the low to mid 70s. While this will produce maximum heat index values of around 105 (below our advisory threshold), relatively light winds and mostly clear skies may aggravate potential heat exposure. As such, heat safety measures should still be considered. A pattern shift arrives on Monday, with global models remaining in agreement in depicting the approach of a cold front extending from a surface low over the Northeastern CONUS early on Monday. While the boundary appears likely to stall out before reaching the coast, it will nonetheless bring a chance of widespread showers and storms throughout the day on Monday. That being said, we currently do not anticipate a severe weather and/or flooding threat. An active pattern will take hold into at least the middle part of next week as a robust midlevel trough swings into the South Central CONUS. As the aforementioned boundary continues to linger over the area, additional showers and storms will be possible. Expect high temperatures a few degrees lower to start off the week, with most locations in the upper 80s to near 90. Low temperatures should continue to remain mainly in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Looks to be a pretty calm day with winds of 10kts or less. Mist is expected to arrive around 6z, bringing with it clear skies and light, variable winds. This mist should only cause a slight reduction in visibility, but will go back to P6SM around 12z. In terms of cloud cover, some mostly clear skies with a few high clouds possible. Thompson/Adams && .MARINE... Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Lighter winds and lower seas will prevail through the weekend. There will be a chance for some patchy fog tonight, but visibilities should not get low enough as to require any fog advisories. There remains a risk of rip currents through the rest of the day today. Heading into next week, a more active weather pattern will develop with chances of thunderstorms returning to the forecast beginning on Monday and prevailing through at least Wednesday. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 95 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 79 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...Thompson/Adams MARINE...Cady