Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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382 FXUS64 KHUN 290529 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A quiet weather morning is in progress with a mostly clear sky and calm winds for most areas. Very patchy BR or FG may develop this morning, but should not be widespread. High clouds associated with thunderstorms all the way back in the Plains will thin quite a bit as they enter the TN valley this afternoon. High temperatures should be in the in the lower to middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A west-northwest flow pattern will be in place the next couple of days. This will bring a couple of weak shortwaves from the southern Plains through AR and southeast through MS into central and southern AL tonight into Thursday. At this point, any shower chances associated with these will be very low and mainly south and west of the Shoals and Huntsville areas. On Friday into Saturday, a narrow ridge axis at 5h will shift east into the OH and eastern TN valleys, allowing a trough axis to enter the lower MO and MS valleys. A lead shortwave ahead of the trough may arrive as early as Friday night into early Saturday, but an initially dry low level atmosphere may delay arrival of showers or thunderstorms until later on Saturday or Saturday night. Thus, PoPs will remain in the low to mid chance range. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The trough will shift east through the region Saturday night into Sunday with varying degrees of amplification of the surface low, front and convection. The GFS seems a bit over amplified in this regard, but will monitor future model trends. In any case, the main hazards over the weekend will be locally heavy rainfall. Rain chances will decrease Sunday night into Monday as the mid to upper flow weakens across the southern U.S. However, with continued south-southwest low level flow, a moist and unstable environment will be supportive of chances of showers and thunderstorms despite weak QG forcing into early to the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours with mostly clear skies and light and variable winds. Chances for fog tonight remain too low to include in TAFs at this time. Light northwest winds will return tomorrow. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...25