388
FXUS64 KHUN 311512
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1012 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A return of moisture and increase in cloud cover should continue,
as a system that impacted parts of Texas yesterday heads eastward.
These clouds as they become more dense, could temper overall
heating somewhat as the day progresses. High temperatures should
warm into the mid 80s despite the clouds. A leading area of shower
and thunderstorm activity with this system was heading more north
than east, extending from north of New Orleans to Memphis and the
Ozarks. More numerous convection was occurring further to the west
over eastern Texas and western Lousiana. Some of the convection
over Mississippi could reach our western areas later today. The
rain chances and forecast temperatures in the grids looks good,
thus no big changes were need.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Tonight will be mostly dry especially for areas along and east of
I-65 as the shortwave trough remains to our west but will continue
to move into the area into the morning hours. Southeast flow will
increase overnight as well, becoming breezy by Saturday morning.
Overnight lows will be limited to the mid to upper 60s with 20-30%
for showers and storms west of I-65. Widespread showers and storms
are forecast Saturday and Sunday, with the heaviest rain expected
Saturday and Saturday night. SPC has placed much of the area in a
Marginal or Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms on Saturday, with
the risk of damaging straight line winds. As a sfc low lifts north
into the Midwest, a limited but marginally supportive shear
profile may support the risk for wet microbursts within multi-
cell clusters. Will also mention a low risk for flooding in
addition to damaging winds, as the atmospheric column will be
primed for heavy rain with PWATs between 1.5-1.7".

There is some model disagreement regarding how much rain we will
see through the day on Sunday, but expect most areas to see at
least light rain before the end of the day. With cloudy skies and
rain in the forecast, expect highs to be limited to the lower 80s
both Saturday and Sunday with warm overnight lows in the mid to
upper 60s. Rain chances will decrease significantly by Sunday
night (<20%) and fog may become the primary concern depending on
how quickly the clouds clear out.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A shortwave across the TN Valley will start off the unsettled
pattern that will persist through mid week. An upper level trough
in the Northern Plains will develop a sfc low and associated cold
front on Tuesday. Another shortwave will slide out ahead of this
system to keep low chance (20-30%) of showers and storms in the
forecast through Tuesday. The sfc low will remain up in the Great
Lakes or just north of there, the cold front will push southeast
into the region on Wednesday. We will see an uptick in the
coverage of showers and storms (30-50%) before the front pushes
through on Thursday. Not expecting severe storms at this time, but
will monitor trends as we get closer to the event.

Ahead of the front, daytime highs will start off in the lower 80s
and climb to encroach 90 degrees by Wednesday with lows around 70
degrees. Behind the front, temps will only slightly improve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period with
winds veering to the southeast by late this afternoon. Chances for
rain and thunder will increase over KMSL toward the end of the TAF
period as well. Amendments may be needed if thunderstorms arrive
sooner than currently forecast. MVFR cigs are expected by 12z
Saturday at KMSL and will track east through the morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25