Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
691 FXUS64 KHUN 130241 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 941 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 941 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Some thin high cloud cover continues to move east southeast aloft, as an upper level trough axis moves east tonight. However, in the lower levels, models are hinting that a weak area of low pressure around 850 mb develops over central MS overnight. This pulls fairly moist boundary layer moisture and 850 mb moisture northward and back west into locations east of the I-65 corridor overnight. This should bring cloud cover back into those areas. Expect this cloud cover to be roughly between 6000 and 8000 feet. Confidence in mostly cloudy conditions spreading west of the I-65 corridor is very low. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions at best in those locations along with light or calm winds. Dewpoints have risen quite a bit already this evening, mainly due to low level moisture advection from the east off the Atlantic coast. Likely will see dewpoints climb further overnight, as this low level flow doesn`t change much. This and cloud cover will likely keep lows from dropping into the mid 60s (maybe even upper 60s) in portions of NE Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Further west, lows will be slightly cooler, but not much given expected moisture advection from the east. Lows in those areas look to be able to drop into the lower 60s given the clear skies and light winds expected. Thus, raised lows a bit to reflect this thinking for tomorrow morning. Patchy fog was added in portions of northern Alabama west of the I-65 corridor. Some areas of fog could develop towards daybreak in those areas as well, likely mainly in Lawrence, Franklin, and into Cullman counties given current dewpoint depressions. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A 5h ridge over the Desert Southwest is still modeled consistently to migrate into the Gulf South and TN valley region through Saturday. This will mean an incremental rise in temperatures each day. Low level flow will still remain light and variable for the most part during this period. Thus, not expecting the deep Gulf moisture layer nearer the coast to reach the area before Saturday. However, dew points will experience a slow uptick through the period back into the 60s. For temperatures, expect highs to increase from the upper 80s to around 90 Thursday, into the lower 90s Friday, and a few middle 90s Saturday. A strong capping inversion will prevent any pulse convection from developing at this point. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The long term forecast poses the question when will we see rain and heat relief? Unfortunately the answer remains somewhat uncertain. By Sunday night there will likely be ongoing convection in the southern Gulf associated with a Gulf low somewhere near the Yucatan. Models diverge on how far north both the Gulf moisture and eventual rain associated with this feature will make it. The GFS favors weakening ridging and a more northward track of gulf moisture bringing us rain and clouds for the start of the work week. The Euro favors stronger ridging suppressing all rain chances and yielding additional days in the high 90s. For this issuance, kept low rain chances in through the long term with cloudy conditions limiting temps to the low 90s. As this period moves closer in time, guidance will become more clear on when heat relief and rain will arrive. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conditions have prevailed as diurnal cu dissipates with the loss of solar heating and high cirrus expected to move out of the area later this evening. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with mostly clear skies and light/variable winds. Some fog development is possible overnight, but confidence in fog impacting either terminal is too low to include in TAFs at this time. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...25