342
FXUS64 KHUN 020547
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The latest analysis this evening indicates a N-S oriented
frontal/convergence boundary was located to our west across Miss
extending northward into the lower OH Valley. Previously, a
conspicuous absence of convective development along the line was
noted, but recently showers/thunderstorms have begun to develop.
Granted, activity appears less extensive/intense than anticipated
by the latest hi-res CAMs, but nevertheless, recent development
has finally occurred. At present, the more concentrated activity
is located just upstream from Colbert/Franklin Counties and is
moving slowly ESEWRD toward those counties. Further development is
anticipated overnight, but probably not on a broad scale given
limited dynamic deep forcing and instability. With that being
said, the threat for severe weather appears to be small, with any
concerns related to gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. So
far, MRMS estimates have indicated ~1 to 1.25 inch/hour rates in
some of the heavier cells in NE Miss and this would tend to
translate eastward overnight. Probabilities for thunder were
reduced in the grids a little for the overnight period due to the
latest observations and expectations for limited coverage of deep
convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Lingering showers/embedded tstms will then begin to gradually
taper off the east on Sun, as the upper trough axis moves east of
the mid TN Valley. Low to medium chances (20-50%) remain in the
forecast for Sun with the better chances east of I-65. With less
rainfall in place, afternoon highs on Sun look to climb more into
the lower/mid 80s. Given the previous rainfall, patchy dense fog
will then be possible late Sun night, as lows again fall predom
into the lower/mid 60s. This brief reprieve in rainfall will come
to an end as low end rain chances around 20% return Mon/Mon night,
as a series of weak upper disturbances begin to traverses eastward
over much of the region. Minimal deep layer shear should again
offset the prob for more organized tstms, although SBCAPE values
increasing to around 2K J/kg may translate into a few stronger
storms capable of gusty winds/brief heavy rainfall. Afternoon
temps will trend a little higher on Mon, with highs mainly in the
mid/upper 80s, before temps fall more into the mid 60s/near 70F
late Mon night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist through mid week. Another shortwave
will slide into the TN Valley on Tuesday bringing low/medium chances
(30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Upstream, an upper level
low will ride just north of the U.S/Canadian border and phase with a
shortwave located in the Northern Plains on Wednesday. The associated
sfc low will have a cold front extending all the way down the MS
Valley. This set up will be slow to make eastward progress due to the
blocky pattern just east of the Great Lakes. Prefrontal showers and
storms will arrive on Wednesday and believe coverage and the threat
for heavy rainfall will increase if another shortwave ends up
scooting through vs staying off to our north. The front will push
through some time on Thursday and POPs will taper off behind it.
Timing still isn`t great on exactly when the front will move
through,as this model cycle has it earlier on Thursday than
yestrday`s run. Will monitor trends to adjust timing and storm hazards.
Otherwise, daytime highs will run in the low/mid 80s with lows in
the upper 60s ahead of the front. Behind the front on Friday, we
won`t see a drastic temp change but will have highs in the lower 80s
with lower humidity and lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MVFR cigs have prevailed over the region tonight and are expected
to drop to IFR by the morning hours. Light rain and a few
thunderstorms will remain possible overnight but dry conditions
should return Sunday morning. Expect winds to remain light and
variable through the remainder of the TAF period, with VFR
conditions returning by this afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...25