Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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466 FXUS64 KHUN 291905 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A cold front is currently moving southeast into northern Alabama. This front should be southeast of the Tennessee River mid the mid afternoon hours. However, the western edge of this front may hang up near or just south of northwestern Alabama this evening, as the rest of the front continues to push southeast. Northerly winds should drop off later this evening and become fairly light, except in the higher elevations. Towards daybreak surface winds in several models shift and become more easterly. This will likely allow for the driest air to affect locations, east of the I-65 corridor, especially in sheltered valley locations. Thus, kept lows in the lower 50s in those shelter valley locations east of the I-65 corridor. Further west, kept lows in the 55 to 60 degree range. No fog is expected with drier air moving into the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Strong upper level ridging builds over the area through Thursday, as a surface high over the Ohio Valley dominates the weather over the eastern CONUS. Models do show a disturbance moving from Lousiana into SW Mississippi Thursday morning. However, most models have this feature falling apart as it runs into moves further ESE. Do believe locations SW of a line from near Cullman, AL to the Quad Cities area will see some cloud cover impacting them as this occurs, but not precipitation is expected. These clouds will likely to help keep temperatures a tad cooler. It will still be fairly cool even further northeast where clouds will not be as prevalent. Highs on Thursday look to make it into the mid 70s to lower 80s in most locations. Upper level ridging briefly amplifies over the area Thursday night into Friday afternoon. This should keep precipitation associated with a stronger upper level trough axis over Mississippi through then. Lows Thursday night should be similar. Highs on Friday should warm up in response to the building ridging. Highs should climb to between 81 and 86 degrees. Friday night forcing from the eastern edge of the upper level trough axis moves far enough east that isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could impact portions of northern Alabama. Shear and instability look too weak for anything but run of the mill thunderstorm activity producing gusty winds, frequent lighting, and heavy downpours. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage Saturday into Saturday night, as the trough axis swings through the Ohio Valley and a trailing trough axis produces this activity over the area. Again, shear is very weak, but instability may be a bit higher. Still, no severe storms are expected as this time. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 This trailing trough axis lingers over the area into early next week, producing daily chances of additional shower and thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected at both terminals. A weakening front will push southeast through both terminals later this afternoon. Winds will become more north northeasterly tomorrow. Some SCT to BKN CIGS could come close to KMSL during the early to mid-afternoon hours, but left them out for now since the CIGS would likely be VFR anyway. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...KTW