194
FXUS64 KHUN 121651
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1151 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 902 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

With surface high pressure maintaining its hold over the
Tennessee Valley, another dry, mild day is in store with upper
level clouds streaming overhead. Temperatures are still forecast
to warm up through the end of the week, so enjoy the day today!
Other than a slight adjustment for dew points based on recent Hi-
Res guidance, no major changes were needed to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Ongoing ridging in the SW CONUS will strengthen and progress east
through the duration of the short term bringing with it very hot
and dry (in the terms of precip) weather. The translation of the
500 MB ridge east across the CONUS will start a warming trend with
temps heating into the low 90s on Thursday. By the weekend, the
ridge will be centered nearly on top of us resulting in the
progression of high temps into the mid to high 90s by Saturday
with temps peaking on Sunday.

A surge of moisture ahead of a front to our north will only
increase the heat risk through the weekend. With dew points in the
high 60s arriving for the weekend, heat index values soar into the
100s Saturday and Sunday. With stout ridging provide ample
subsidence below it, there will be little in the way of heat
relief as both cloud cover and winds will be incredibly light each
day. That being said it will be increasingly important that
individuals take the precautions necessary to keep safe from both
the sun and the heat through the weekend. This includes wearing
proper sun protection and avoiding heat exhaustion by taking
frequent breaks in shade and staying hydrated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The long term forecast poses the question when will we see rain
and heat relief? Unfortunately the answer remains somewhat
uncertain. By Sunday night there will likely be ongoing convection
in the southern Gulf associated with a Gulf low somewhere near
the Yucatan. Models diverge on how far north both the Gulf
moisture and eventual rain associated with this feature will make
it. The GFS favors weakening ridging and a more northward track
of gulf moisture bringing us rain and clouds for the start of the
work week. The Euro favors stronger ridging suppressing all rain
chances and yielding additional days in the high 90s. For this
issuance, kept low rain chances in through the long term with
cloudy conditions limiting temps to the low 90s. As this period
moves closer in time, guidance will become more clear on when heat
relief and rain will arrive.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...17