046
FXUS64 KHUN 100455
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 853 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Weak cold front has just about moved southward thru all of north
AL this Sun evening. While most of the lingering showers/tstms
have moved just south of the area, some additional light/moderate
showers out of west/mid TN associated with an upper trough axis
dropping southward thru the region is beginning to cross into NW
AL. Some additional showers, along with a few elevated tstms, are
likewise possible for much of the mid TN Valley thru the remainder
of the evening hrs, before rainfall tapers off to the SE heading
into the overnight period. With the passage of the front, slightly
cooler/drier air will filter into the area from the north, thereby
allowing lows into early Mon to fall into the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Rain chances will wane by early Monday morning as cloud cover
gradually diminishes from north to south on Monday. A cooler,
drier air mass will move into the region early next week and we`ll
enjoy high temperatures only in the low to mid 80s for Monday and
Tuesday, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s -- all to go
along with sunny conditions each day. Ridging will amplify by
midweek and a gradual warming trend will begin on Wednesday and
carry over into the later part of the week. More on this in the
section below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Although specific details remain unclear at this point, most of
the global models now suggest that that southern stream trough
(discussed above) will travel southeastward into the northern Gulf
of Mexico during the first half of the extended period, before
evolving into nearly stationary cutoff low on Friday/Friday night.
Any northward movement of the low next weekend will likely be
dictated by the strength and orientation of a blocking mid-level
ridge to its north, which will in all likelihood lie across the TN
Valley, providing an extended period of warm and dry conditions
that could potentially extend into the first part of the following
week. That said, we have included a very low (15-20%) POP across
our southeastern counties on Friday and Saturday afternoons, due
to a gradual increase in low-level moisture which will translate
to a notable increase in CAPE given hot daytime temperatures.
Highs will quickly warm into the lower 90s for most valley
locations by Thursday/Friday/Saturday, with lows more gradually
returning to the u60s-l70s by Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

By the start of the TAF period VFR conditions should return and
remain for the duration of the TAF. The scattered ceiling will
lift by mid morning giving way to mostly clear skies. NNW winds
will be light with occasional gusts to 10-12 KTS.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...RAD