Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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869 FXUS64 KHUN 080719 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 219 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Fairly mundane weather for the near term today. Over the next several hours a short wave prompting rain and storms to our NW will continue to plummet SE. Fortunately models keep any rain and storms associated with the shortwave well to our north as it passes through the area mid morning. The passage of the shortwave will promote a slight increase in cloud cover but remain un-impactful otherwise. To our south, surface high pressure will drift to the NE and gradually introduce SSW flow and in turn return of dewpoints in the mid 60s throughout the day. With highs in the high 80s, another beautiful early summer day is ahead of us. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 By tonight, the SSW flow will restore a warm moist air mass with lows in the high 60s in place. Sunday looks to be our next chance for rain and storms however CAMs have yet to converge on a solution. Two periods of rain and storms appear possible. Early Sunday morning an additional shortwave will move through with an MCS likely going on to our NW. Models disagree on the southern extent and eventual dissipation of the MCS. A likely scenario seems the MCS will track just north of us with some shower and storm activity possible north of the TN river through mid morning. At a minimum, cloud cover will increase through the mid morning hours. Redevelopment of rain and storms looks possible Sunday afternoon into the evening with the passage of a cold front. Sunday afternoon storms will be highly contingent on the behavior and presence of any morning storms and cloud cover. If the MCS does track a little further south resulting in a higher coverage of clouds, rain, and storms, this would allow less time for the environment to rebound and decrease storm potential in the afternoon. If Sunday morning remains dry, CAMS indicate the potential for 2000-3000 J/KG of CAPE supporting a low end severe threat for the evening. Again this is a conditional threat however any storms that do develop will pose a risk for damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Come Monday, the passage of the cold front will leave a cooler air mass in place. Monday and Tuesday will see high temps in the low 80s with dewpoints remaining in the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Ridging in the central CONUS will set up at the end of the short term resulting in a very dry air mass remaining in place through the duration of the long term. While highs will gradually climb back up to the high 80s, dry air aloft will greatly suppress rain chances through the first half of the long term. Chances for rain in the second half of the long term remain uncertain. Global models indicate a possible split flow pattern through the end of the work week in the form of a trough splitting off into the Gulf. If the trough takes a more eastern track, this will favor low to medium rain chances for the second half of the long term. If the trough take a more southern track or struggles to form, this will likely keep us mostly dry through the duration long term. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Calm and clear conditions will prevail overnight promoting VFR conditions at both terminals. There is a possibility for fog development during the early morning hours from 9-12Z as indicated in the TAF. While the current TAF keep visibilities VFR, should the forecast or observation indicate lower visibilities, adjustments will be made in the TAF. Any fog that does form should dissipate with sunrise with light SSW winds and VFR conditions prevailing for the remainder of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...RAD