Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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350 FXUS64 KHUN 220002 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 702 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Afternoon highs have risen into the mid to upper 80s under mostly sunny skies and southerly winds. This is the result of high pressure centered just to our east and strong WAA under broad ridging aloft, continuing a warming trend across the Tennessee Valley early this week. Will maintain dry conditions through the remainder of the day, and drier air near the sfc will prohibit any fog development overnight. Breezy afternoon winds should subside with the loss of daytime heating, and will see a gradual increase in clouds tonight. This will help keep low temps on the warm side, only falling to the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Moisture will continue to increase across the region as an upper trough axis shifts east across the Great Lakes, pushing the ridge axis farther east. Wednesday will be another dry day with afternoon temperatures nearing 90 degrees despite the increasing cloud cover. As broad upper troughing becomes more dominant, this will result in increasing chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms by Thursday. These storms will be primarily diurnally driven as a sfc cold front is held up to our north and west. By Friday, a shortwave trough axis will swing across the area, and combined with rich moisture will result in medium (40-60%) chances of showers and thunderstorms. Given that this is more typical of a summer-time pattern, some of these storms could be on the strong side and could produce gusty winds and small hail, but the chance for widespread severe storms looks very low and confined to areas farther west. Daily highs will remain in the mid to upper 80s with lows near 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 This impulse along the front swings east Friday night and south of the area Saturday night. This subsequently bring medium to high (40-70%) chance for showers and storms to the area. General view of the storm environment would favor plenty of CAPE with sufficient shear to support at least a few organized strong storms, with gusty winds and hail (along with locally heavy downpours) being the main threats on Friday night into Saturday night. We`ll remain in a fairly active pattern through the the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend, with zonal low aloft allowing for additional shortwaves to traverse the region. Subsequently, medium chances (40-60%)for showers/storms will be present in the forecast both Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals throughout the valid TAF period, with few high-based Cu expected to dissipate over the course of the evening as bkn-ovc layers of convective debris clouds begin to spread eastward into the region. Although the cold front responsible for thunderstorm activity to our west will decelerate as it tracks southeastward through the Mid-MS Valley overnight and should stall before reaching our area tomorrow morning, the close proximity of the boundary may result in a few showers and storms across NW AL/southern TN throughout the day. However, anticipated storm coverage does not warrant inclusion of VCTS or PROB30 groups for KMSL at the current time. Sfc winds will remain from SSE overnight and SSW during the day tomorrow, with sustained speeds of 5-10 kts. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM...KTW AVIATION...70/DD