Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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671 FXUS63 KICT 011130 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 630 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms will be possible over the region for tonight-Tuesday night - Several rounds of storms could start causing some flooding problems for parts of the region from Sunday night-Tuesday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Expecting storms to develop again over the high plains region for mid-late afternoon. The storms should congeal into a line of storms and spread eastward as low level jet/moisture transport increases boosting the maintenance time for storms. Therefore this activity will have a better chance of reaching central/south central Kansas tonight, mainly affecting locations west of I-135/I-35. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging winds as the main hazard. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper level wave approaching the northwest coastline early this morning. This system will track eastward across the Rockies and eject into the northern plains late Sunday afternoon. A cold front will then surge southward across Nebraska into a very unstable airmass igniting thunderstorms. The thunderstorms will likely grow upscale then transition into a forward propagating MCS as low level jet/moisture transport increases and feeds the complex of storms. Corfidi vectors suggests a south/southeast movement of the MCS complex once a robust cold pool develops. This looks to impact mainly northeastern Kansas during the overnight hours, however parts of central/southeast Kansas could be clipped by the complex of storms. Damaging winds and torrential downpours would be the main risk. If this scenario happens and a big outflow pushes well south then Monday`s setup could be altered and stabilized during the day with chances of storms diminished. Model trends for Tuesday`s upper wave have the system moving through the northern plains region quicker than previous model runs. Still seeing a decent signal for storms developing along southeast moving frontal boundary for Tuesday afternoon/night which could affect Kansas again. Some flooding problems could arise during the Sunday night-Tuesday night period, especially if same locations are affected by multiple rounds of storms. Meanwhile, long range models continue to show a pattern change with upper northwest flow regime setting up over the central plains for Wednesday-Friday. This would result in dry weather conditions for Kansas. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 IFR/LIFR cigs early this morning will gradually begin to mix out as we move into the mid-morning hours becoming VFR by late morning or early afternoon for most areas. Light winds will prevail through the period. Some patchy dense fog was impacting parts of central and eastern Kansas but should improve by 8-9 AM at the latest. Another round of storms will drift eastward off the high plains late tonight impacting central KS just before midnight. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDJ AVIATION...MWM