859
FXUS63 KICT 202001
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Severe storms possible Tuesday evening in southeast Kansas

 - Chances for and intensity of convection for Thursday, Friday
   and Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Satellite and surface analysis showing low pressure across the
western part of Oklahoma southeast of KGAG.  A quasi-stationary
front extends north through western Kansas up through KHLC, then
northeast up through east-central Nebraska.  This boundary will be
the focus for convection over the next several days and nights.

Upper level satellite, model, and observational data remains
consistent in a continued active pattern over the next several days,
with perturbations moving through the mean flow. At the
surface, the latest of these pushes a cold front through the
area tonight, aided by the convection (convective cold pool)
that will develop across Nebraska and northern Kansas.

The front will stall over southeast Kansas Tuesday, with
favorable shear/buoyancy combinations and hodograph shape for
possible tornadoes in southeast Kansas.

The high pressure over the remainder of the area will be short
lived as another Lee trough develops Thursday. With the Gulf
being open, significant moisture returns to the area to support
storm development later in the week.

Shear/buoyancy combinations improve each day starting on
Thursday with the most favorable location being southeast
Kansas. At this time, Friday and Saturday evening look the most
favorable for severe weather, including tornadoes. Hodograph
shape looks most favorable as the upper level winds veer
consistently with height.

Bottom line, severe weather chances increase later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

A quasi-stationary front extends from west of KDDC-KHLC-KHJH at
17:30Z. This puts the forecast area in the warm sector and
mostly out of the way of any convection this afternoon and
evening. CU across the area will continue through this evening
until the diurnal heating abates. There will be occasional CIGS
of BKN025 until then. Winds will remain southerly with some
gusts to 25 kts until sundown. The wind will re-establish itself
again Tuesday.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday evening
across areas along and east of the Kansas Turnpike, as well as
northwest Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KRC
AVIATION...KRC