099
FXUS63 KICT 261115
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
615 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few storms this afternoon across central and northeast KS.

- Dry and warm for Memorial Day.

- Periodic storm chances increasing Wed night and continuing
  through at least Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Water vapor imagery shows one upper impulse lifting into the Mid
Mississippi Valley with another circulation about to move out of
the Central Rockies. Last but not least, another piece of energy
is located over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, low
pressure is situated across south central KS with a trough from
Eastern Nebraska into the low over central KS.

Storms continue over northeast KS into the Ozarks where an
impressive low level jet is providing strong 850mb moisture
transport. Better low level jet focus will shift east this
morning as 850mb flow starts to veer. So may continue to see
some activity over far southeast KS around sunrise but will
quickly move off into southern MO. Currently expecting some iso-
sct showers and storms this afternoon across northeast and
central KS as the last upper impulse slides across the area.
While mid and upper flow will not be particularly strong, there
should be around 1000-1500J/CAPE by this afternoon. This
activity will be strongly diurnally driven.

The impulse over the Northern Rockies will pass over the
Northern Plains Mon morning as a more robust upper low sinks
south across Eastern Manitoba. This will bring northwest flow
over the central Plains for Monday setting up dry and warm
conditions. For Tue, upper troughing will encompass the Upper
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region with shortwave
troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest. Scattered shower
and storm chances will increase for Tue night as a mid level
baroclinc zone sets up with some decent 700mb moisture transport
along it. For mid to late week, a broad area of upper troughing
will encompass the Western CONUS with the main upper trough
tracking from the Northern Intermountain into the Northern
Rockies. Medium range models agree on a series of weak upper
perturbations lifting out of the Desert Southwest and across the
Southern Plains for Wed night through at least Fri. While upper
flow is fairly weak, there will be plenty of moisture available
as the Gulf remains open. So while chances for organized severe
storms appears low, we should see storm chances linger through
late week with isolated heavy rain the main threat.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

THROUGH 16Z... A line of showers and isolated storms is moving
south across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas this
morning. A few lightning strikes are possible, especially along
the KS/OK stateline over the next couple of hours. A wind shift
from southerly to easterly will accompany these showers. North
of this activity, intermittent MVFR cigs will likely linger
through the late morning hours and periodically impact some TAF
sites. Easterly winds should gradually starting turning
northerly this morning as a surface low tracks eastward across
northeast Oklahoma. Wind speeds in any directions will generally
be between 10 and 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
occasionally.

AFTER 16Z... Northerly winds should eventually become
predominantly northwesterly by early this afternoon across the
area. Prior to 00Z, winds speeds will generally range from 10
to 20 knots. After 00Z, winds speeds will decrease to around 5
knots. Additional development of isolated storms is possible
across portions of central Kansas, but chances remain too low to
mention in the TAFs for now.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC