043
FXUS63 KICT 032020
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
320 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
  through tonight over mainly the eastern half of Kansas.

- Additional thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- After a lull thunderstorm-wise Wednesday through Friday,
  periodic storm chances return Friday night through at least
  early next week.

- Seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures the next several
  days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

THIS AFTERNOON--TONIGHT...An MCV from this morning`s thunderstorm
complex that moved across western into south-central Kansas is
situated over central-eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, an amplified upper
shortwave is approaching from western Kansas. Forcing from these
features, along with some daytime heating and associated
destabilization, should support isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms through at least this evening over central and
eastern Kansas. Buoyancy and deep layer shear are modest at best, so
severe weather is not expected. Overnight...with a slight nocturnal
low-level jet increase, could see additional hit-or-miss
shower/storm activity bubble overnight over eastern Kansas, in
vicinity of the aforementioned upper forcing, as well as over
western and central Kansas ahead of another upper wave and
associated frontal zone approaching from the west. Severe weather is
also unlikely with this activity.

TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...The approaching upper wave and associated
weakening frontal zone oozing in from the west-northwest will be the
focus for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday, especially from mid-late
afternoon through the evening. Strong heating and rich low-level
moistening amidst steep lapse rates will support strong instability.
Coupled with marginal deep layer shear of 20-30 kts, thinking a few
strong to severe multi-cell and possible marginal supercell
thunderstorms are possible, capable of isolated large hail, damaging
downburst winds, and locally very heavy rainfall. Given the rich low-
level moisture and potential for decent low-level buoyancy, can`t
rule out a few landspout tornadoes as well. If coverage ends up
being greater than expected, activity could tend to grow upscale
into one or more loosely organized thunderstorm complexes Tuesday
evening over southeast Kansas, with a continued threat for wind and
heavy rain.

WEDNESDAY--FRIDAY...A relatively stable, post-frontal airmass is
slated to encompass the region mid to late this week, supporting
mostly dry conditions, lower dewpoints, and seasonable to seasonably
warm temperatures. A secondary frontal zone oozing in from the north
may support an isolated thunderstorm or two Wednesday evening, but
thinking these chances are fairly low and coverage will be sparse.

FRIDAY NIGHT--MONDAY...The upper flow turns more northwesterly to
westerly by early this weekend, with various subtle disturbances in
the upper flow. This will allow for returning moisture/instability,
along with increasing 850-650mb warm advection as an EML attempts to
advect in from the west-southwest. All this to say...there will be
off-and-on chances for thunderstorms starting Friday night, and
persisting into at least early next week. Seasonable upper flow with
a decent veering profile should support periodic strong to severe
storm chances, along with locally heavy rain. Stay tuned as details
are refined in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the daylight hours at all
terminals. Thanks to a mesoscale circulation over north central KS,
a few showers may impact KSLN for a few hours this afternoon based
on the current radar. As this circulation pushes to the east, there
could be additional southward development for showers and possible
storms this evening into tonight. Confidence is not high enough to
insert any mention for other sites. Behind the precipitation, there
was a brief increase in the winds which is just starting at
KCNU. Otherwise winds should hold to near 10 kts for the period.

Then the primary aviation concern for the rest of the period will be
MVFR cigs after 10Z for terminals in central KS. Given uncertainty
regarding the timing and coverage of these lower clouds which may
stick around a bit longer or clear out as the sun rises, it was
decided to keep the end time out for now. Later shifts may have a
better handle on the longevity.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JK