293
FXUS63 KICT 180403
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1103 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few storms are possible across southeast KS this afternoon

- Isolated storms possible Saturday afternoon/evening across central
  into northeast KS

- Severe storms are possible Sunday through Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

As of 245 PM Friday afternoon, weak midlevel flow was present across
the Plains. Similar to a mid-summer pattern, peak heating generated
pulse convection is expected across far southeast KS where the
deepest moisture resides. DCAPE up to 1000 J/kg may support gusty
winds with any downdraft. As we transition into the evening,
convection will diminish in coverage with mostly clear skies
overnight.

Transition into Saturday, a weak surface trough will slide into
central and northeast KS by mid-afternoon. Little, if any,
temperature gradient is expected to reside along the boundary. The
modest wind shift along the front may create sufficient convergence
for the development of a few storms Saturday afternoon. Similar to
today, midlevel flow will remain weak and pulse convection will be
the primary mode. Temperatures will be quite summer-like with highs
in the 80s to near 90.

This frontal zone will lift back north Saturday night as a western
CONUS shortwave trough approaches the Plains. A few storms are
possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning on the nose of the
LLJ across northern KS/southern NE. Any storm should remain north of
I-70 and likely north of our forecast area.

By Sunday, the midlevel flow is forecast to increase as a dryline
sharpens across west-central KS. Strong surface heating and
convergence along the dryline and a weak shortwave trough
passage should erode a moderate capping inversion and allow for
isolated development by late afternoon. Long, veering
hodographs will support supercell structures. Any supercell will
be capable of golf ball size hail, damaging winds up to 70 mph,
and a tornado or 2. It`s uncertain whether sufficient
development will occur for cold pool mergers and eventual
upscale growth into line segments Sunday evening/Sunday night.

The potential for severe storms will continue into Monday with a
triple point emerging across west-central KS once again. A more
vigorous midlevel speed max will overspread the dryline by late
afternoon, inducing storm development. Again, long, veering
hodographs will support supercells capable of all hazards.

The main shortwave trough will eject across the Plains Tuesday,
shunting the surface trough axis across the state. Another round of
severe storms appears possible across far eastern KS by Tuesday
afternoon/evening. An active midlevel pattern looks to continue
through next week with broad southwesterly midlevel flow persisting
across the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Aviation concerns are still expected to remain on the low side.

Still looking for a very weak cold font/wind shift to move
through on Sat, with latest model guidance slowing it down some
and not pushing it as far south. Confidence on storms developing
along it also remains low so will leave mention out for now.
Looking for winds to flip around to the north at KRSL-KGBD in
the 17-19z range and KHUT around 22z. There is a chance the
front may not make it down to KICT.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...RBL