881
FXUS62 KILM 220415
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1215 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures
for the mid to late week period. A stalling cold front and
passing disturbances aloft will bring rain chances starting
Fri and continuing into the upcoming Memorial holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes with the latest update other than to drop the
Coastal Flood Advisory. Main concern overnight will be the
risk for dense fog and a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed if
widespread visibilities fall to one quarter of a mile or less.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIgh pressure still to our north, bringing a dewpoint-suppressing
NE wind (well, outside of the seabreeze, that is). The high
will be retreating tonight leaving behind some light and
variable winds and the stage seems set for a little fog, though
vsby restrictions may only be limited to aviation, i.e. no worse
than 2 SM. As a very light southerly breeze becomes established
Wednesday the dewpoints will increase slowly and the afternoon
will warm well into the 80s away from the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
What can be a typical late spring pattern continues to be
advertised by short and long range guidance. This is reflected
in a mid level pattern becoming more east/west oriented in time
with a similar configured frontal zone at the surface. Embedded
shortwaves and or mesoscale convective systems roll by
occasionally with this pattern. For the short term the best
pops/forcing occur Friday afternoon and evening with a more
uncertain chance Thursday evening. Temperatures on the rise
throughout aided in part by a westerly/downslope component.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Somewhat unsettled pattern continues into next week with the
same features mentioned in the short term. A drying trend is
noted very late in the period as a stronger shortwave across the
Great Lakes pushes the stationary/cold front to the south. Some
dewpoints in the 60s which by that time will have been absent
from the observations for a while be welcome.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions for the 06Z TAF period
across SE NC and NE SC outside of early morning low clouds/fog
from about 08Z until about 13Z, and possibly again toward the
end of the period (especially near the coast). LIFR conditions
or worse are expected. Otherwise, light/variable winds will
increase from the SE and then S with the sea breeze this
afternoon/early eve but should stay around 10 kt or less.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR outside morning low clouds/fog,
mainly through Thu morning. Periodic flight restrictions
possible with showers/storms coverage starting Fri and
continuing into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Very light pressure gradient and the absence
of any long period swell means tranquil conditions through the
period. The weak high will initially be centered to our north,
but the ridge axis will retreat heading into Wednesday. This
will turn NE (and somewhat variable) wind to the SE by the end
of the period.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Its all but summer on the
calendar across the coastal waters through the period. Winds
will be southwest in a range of 10- 15 knots. Not a lot of
variability expected in seas as well with a values wobbling
in a range of 2-4 feet.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SHK/MBB