113
FXUS62 KILM 091927
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
327 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through tonight brining only scattered
showers and storms as well as ending the heat heading into
Monday. Rain-free and seasonable conditions for much of the week
will give way to a late week increase in humidity and rain
chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A front will drop into the area tonight into Monday as a series of
shortwaves at H5 move through the area.  This should produce
isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening into Monday
with the greatest chances for rain spreading from north to south
with time.  Lows tonight will fall to the upper 60s to around 70.
Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM/MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather expected Monday night with a front stalled just
offshore but still enough mid level ascent to lead to low level
upglide. There`s a pretty good indication that the showers and
storms will be focused along a narrow axis, and this will hinge upon
the position of the boundary. Some guidance paints the high QPF
along the immediate coast whereas others keep it over the water. A
weak wave of low pressure should turn low level winds offshore
Tuesday allowing for dry air to advect in from the NW, aided further
by the mid level trough axis swinging through. Tuesday`s highs will
be near normal whereas both nights will be just a few degrees on the
cool side.

&&

Monday night through Friday... A weak wave of low pressure passes by
along an offshore frontal boundary Tuesday. Thereafter a well-
defined pressure pattern will be hard to come by. High pressure will
be in it`s normal location across the western Atlantic but the
lingering troughiness from the decaying frontal boundary appears to
prevent it from extending westward into the U.S. much. As such winds
will be capped at 10 knots and a pronounced direction will be hard
to forecast. Seas will run 2-3 ft generally in a shorter period wind
wave.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Outside showers and storms this evening into the overnight in
association with a front moving through, expect VFR conditions at
are terminals.  Prob30 for TSRA with possible vrb gusty winds at
coastal terminals this evening with VCTS inland. W to SW winds this
afternoon except S along the grand stand will become NW by morning.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the period though restrictions are
possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms, mainly Mon-Tue
and again late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday:
SW winds to 15 to 20 KT late this afternoon will decrease to
about 10 KT by Monday as they veer to the NW. Seas will run 2 to
3 FT.

Monday night through Friday... A weak wave of low pressure passes by
along an offshore frontal boundary Tuesday. Thereafter a well-
defined pressure pattern will be hard to come by. High pressure will
be in it`s normal location across the western Atlantic but the
lingering troughiness from the decaying frontal boundary appears to
prevent it from extending westward into the U.S. much. As such winds
will be capped at 10 knots and a pronounced direction will be hard
to forecast. Seas will run 2-3 ft generally in a shorter period wind
wave.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...31
MARINE...ILM