Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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904 FXUS62 KILM 071057 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 657 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will slowly move across the area today and tonight then off the coast by Saturday with drier air in place across the region. The chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase by mid-week as deeper moisture returns to the area. && .UPDATE... Showers are beginning to pick up speed with a cold front pushing eastward. These should begin to diminsh by mid morning. A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon, mainly along and east of US-17, little to no thunder expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Thunderstorms ahead of and associated with an approaching cold front will continue early this morning. Lingering instability and low level moisture advection along the coast will focus the majority of activity here. The cold front currently positioned just east of I-95 will gradually push eastward this morning and stall near the coast by midday or early afternoon. Showers associated with the front are holding together for now, but expect coverage to struggle as the front and upper level dry air coalesce this morning. Latest forecast maintains a chance of showers along and east of US-17 this afternoon along the front. Dry air aloft should cap this shallow convection with little to no lightning risk this afternoon. A secondary push of dry air will move into the area late this afternoon and into this evening. This will bring a refreshingly cool evening with dew points falling into the upper 50s and lows in the low and mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... H5 ridge is expected to be centered near the central Gulf Coast during saturday with WNWly mid/upper flow from the Mid-MS Valley into the Mid Atlantic region. This pattern will direct impulses toward the area this weekend but time-height cross sections suggests moisture will be limited in the column. Perhaps by Sunday evening there will be enough moisture in place for the return of widely scattered/scattered convection. Saturday high temperatures will be slightly cooler in the wake of the weak front, however with return flow becoming re-established during Sunday high temperatures will rebound into the lower 90s with increasing humidity. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GFS ensembles suggest a trough moving from the Mid-MS Valley early next week moving across the eastern U.S. by mid-week. Precipitable water will increase as a result, and the probabilities for greater than a tenth of rainfall increase as well. Have trended PoPs upward a bit Tuesday into Wednesday as a result, but much uncertainty remains at this time. The added cloud cover and convective chances would inhibit high temperatures during this time as well, with most areas expected to be in the upper 80s to around 90. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Shallow convection this morning likely to bring brief periods of MVFR, mainly ILM. VFR inland today. Isolated showers possible this afternoon along the coast. VFR thereafter. Extended Outlook...VFR expected on Saturday. Restrictions possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms late Sunday into early next week. && .MARINE... Through tonight...Breezy this morning ahead of a cold front with showers and thunderstorms likely through mid and late morning. As a cold front pushes offshore this afternoon into this evening, another round of showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop in the waters 20-40 nm offshore. Activity will gradually wane late tonight into Saturday morning. South and southwest winds around 15-20 knots today will become northerly tonight behind the front. Strong gusts are possible in thunderstorms, particularly this morning. Saturday through Wednesday...The earlier weak frontal passage across the coastal waters will allow winds to veer to a NEly direction Saturday morning. The NEly winds will be short-lived as the flow veers back to an onshore direction later in the day. During Sunday, a SWly fetch will increase ahead of a developing inland trough. These winds will lead to choppy conditions through Sunday evening, then the flow will temporarily turn offshore Sunday night into Monday as the boundary moves off the coast. Onshore flow is expected to prevail by Tuesday-Wednesday with lower pressure inland with increasing seas given the fetch. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...SRP LONG TERM...SRP AVIATION...21 MARINE...21/SRP