Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
070 FXUS62 KILM 070159 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 959 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and storms will increase this evening ahead of a cold front. After the front moves offshore, cooler and drier air is expected through the weekend. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances return by early next week, with temperatures gradually warming. && .UPDATE... The CWA is currently in the expected lull in pops but the overall theme remains in place. The west to east broken line of convection to the north will continue to sink south and will take its sweet time to subside and or move out. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... A 500 mb trough axis was located from eastern TN southward across AL and into the Gulf early this afternoon, and coupled with surface high pressure well off the Carolina coast, was resulting in deep SW flow across the area. Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing early this afternoon across the Pee Dee and Williamsburg/Georgetown counties should continue to blossom in the unstable airmass, although they should remain scattered in nature. Convection should become a bit more organized this evening/overnight as a northern shortwave begins to push a surface front, draped across central KY and western TN as of 18Z, towards the area. Exact timing and extent of this second round of convection remains uncertain, as convection- allowing models are offering varying solutions. We do remain in a marginal risk for severe storms, with damaging wind gusts possible with some of the stronger cells. It appears the front may hang up along the coast Friday morning until a subsequent shortwave gives it a final push by 18Z, but am expecting Friday to be dry and mostly sunny as deep dry air filters in above 750 mb. Max temps Friday will stay above climo with highs around 90 away from the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cold front over the area Friday night should quickly zip offshore by Saturday morning. Drier, cooler air will continue to stream in overnight. Lows Friday night in the low-to-mid 60s. Lovely day on the way for Saturday, with high pressure moving in from the Deep South. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. Lows Saturday night should be 2-3 degrees warmer than the previous night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure gets pushed southward Sunday, with increasing clouds throughout the day ahead of another cold front. Most of the day Sunday should be free of rain chances. Pre-frontal warming brings the highs up to the lower 90s inland, upper 80s at the coast. Cold front should push through the area Sunday night, with rain chances increasing. Though precipitable water values kick up to above 1.8 inches, the column doesn`t look as moist as it could be, so not expecting very widespread showers and storms with this one. Lows Sunday night in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Front should be offshore by Monday morning, but may linger there through at least Tuesday. While cooler, drier air comes in Monday, we may still have enough mesoscale features in the atmosphere to allow for the typical afternoon showers and storms. Front gradually pushes further offshore throughout the week, but other features like the seabreeze and the Piedmont trough become a bit more prominent, which keeps around the daily shower and storm chances in the afternoon. Highs inland in the upper 80s Monday and Tuesday become more like the lower 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. Highs at the coast generally stick to the mid 80s. Lows in the low-to-mid 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overall VFR expected to continue outside of transitory convection. Confidence is sufficient to keep CRE and MYR convection free until after midnight. Expect another round/line of convection later tonight into the morning hours from north to south. Extended Outlook...VFR expected Friday and Saturday. Restrictions possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms late Sunday into early next week. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Enhanced SW flow will continue tonight ahead of a cold front, that is expected to reach the coast around daybreak Friday. The front is expected to stall along the coast Friday morning, resulting in continued SW flow until it gets a push during the afternoon. Winds will shift from SW to NW behind the front, but that shift appears as though it will occur late in the day. The 1-2 ft SE swell will persist at 7-8 seconds, along with a SW winds wave of 2-3 ft every 5-6 seconds. Friday Night through Tuesday...Cold front moves through the area Friday night, causing winds at 10-15kts to veer from the southwest to the northeast by Saturday morning. Pressure gradient loosens and winds slow to 5-10kts, gradually veering back to the southwest by Sunday. Gradient tightens again Sunday night ahead of another cold front, causing a few gusts up to 20kts. After the front moves through by Monday morning, winds veer northwesterly before decreasing back down to 5-10kts later in the day. From there, variable winds Monday and Tuesday. Seas generally 2-3ft, with a few 4ft waves possible out 20nm from shore during the frontal passage Sunday night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...SHK NEAR TERM...CRM SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...IGB/CRM