Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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935 FXUS62 KILM 011749 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 149 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the coast this evening as quiet and slightly cooler weather continues through the weekend. Temperatures and humidity are on the rise next week, with daily shower and thunderstorm chances gradually returning. A cold front may move through the area by late in the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High-pressure ridging from Western New York to South Carolina will shift off the coast by 12 UTC Sunday. Very little moisture is available, and sunny/clear skies are expected through Sunday night. Temperatures will remain just below average for one more day, with highs ranging from the lower 80s at the coast to 82-84 inland. Lows Sunday night will range from the middle 50s in interior sections of Southeast North Carolina to the lower to middle 60s along the coast and interior Northeast South Carolina. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Mostly quiet weather in the short term period. Clouds are on the rise, with high pressure shifting further offshore, and setting up some healthy return flow. Even so, subsidence should keep most everybody dry on Sunday. Folks west of I-95 carry just a stray chance for a shower or thunderstorm where subsidence is a bit weaker, but this shouldn`t pose much of a problem. The cooler airmass sticks around, with highs only in the lower 80s. Lows Sunday night in the mid 60s. Monday, more moisture continues to enter the column, with precipitable water values shooting up to 1.50+ inches. Most of the subsidence erodes away, and a classic summertime pattern is starting to take shape (happy Meteorological Summer, by the way). Maintaining relatively low chances for afternoon showers and storms, particularly inland with the Piedmont trough. High temperatures rebound a bit the mid 80s, while lows Monday night should be a degree or two warmer than the previous night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday looks rather similar to Monday, albeit a touch warmer. Things start to get a little more interesting by Wednesday. A broad upper low over Manitoba and Ontario spins and gradually drops southeastward through the Great Lakes region Wednesday through Friday. Ahead of this beast, multiple shortwaves push through the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, which, combined with daytime heating, brings more robust shower and thunderstorm chances. Afternoon convection from the seabreeze and Piedmont trough should look a bit more organized at this point. A large swath of forcing from the big upper low finally surges southward Thursday night through Friday, which pushes a cold front through the area. This may bring an even more organized line of convection through the area at this time. Instability really perks up Thursday ahead of the front, so this might be one to watch. Details will get better in the coming days. Highs generally in the upper 80s to near 90 each day. Lows range in the mid-to-upper 60s inland to lower 70s at the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR expected through the period. There was a touch of ground fog this morning and the drift downward of dewpoint depressions overnight warrants a slight uptick in concern. However ample mid level cloud cover should keep any threat limited and transitory at worst. Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure will shift off the Carolina coast by sunrise Monday. The wind direction will veer from the east on Sunday and to the south on Sunday night. Wind speeds will range between 5 to 10 knots. Seas will remain around 2 feet through the period. Sunday through Wednesday...Winds generally out of the south or southwest most of the period at 10kts. Winds become more southeasterly Wednesday, decreasing slightly to 5-10kts. Seas remain virtually locked in at 1-2ft, with a few 3ft waves possible 20nm from shore. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...IGB LONG TERM...IGB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...IGB/RH