Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
060 FXUS62 KILM 041030 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 630 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air northward, resulting in isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday. A cold front could reach the Carolinas on Friday, bringing a mainly rain-free weekend. && .UPDATE... No significant changes with the 7 AM EDT forecast update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Warm and humid today underneath weak ridging aloft. Instability just above the LCL could generate a few showers or thunderstorms along the sea breeze early this afternoon. Rain chances will gradually shift inland through the afternoon with the sea breeze and warmer temperatures inland. Coverage will remain isolated due to weak instability and dry air aloft. Little relief overnight with lows in upper 60s to near 70 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday and Thursday still look to be the two wettest days of the week. Not expecting a washout or rain the entire day, but mid-level shortwave energy is more pronounced than previous days, and in conjunction with daily sea breezes will lead to scattered to numerous diurnal showers and thunderstorms, especially inland. Temps will also slowly rise through the week, reaching the low 90s Thursday with heat indices in the mid/upr 90s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Drier weather overall this period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible Friday before a cold front crosses the area late in the day, followed by dry conditions over the weekend as weak sfc high pressure builds in from the west along with zonal flow aloft. Temps still slightly above normal for early June - highs in the upr 80s/lwr 90s. Rain chances return Monday as a broad upr-level low takes shape over the eastern CONUS and lobes of vorticity swing around it. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions today. A small chance of a sea breeze shower or two during the early afternoon. Better chance of a shower or storm inland this afternoon. Coverage is expected to be isolated. Will go with a PROB30 to cover the best timing of the threat. Winds will be light out of the SW with afternoon gusts up to 20 knots along the sea breeze. VFR tonight. Extended Outlook... Isolated mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday, becoming a little more widespread Thursday ahead of a front. VFR expected Friday and Saturday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High pressure offshore will maintain southerly winds today and tonight. Seas around 2 feet. A few showers or storms are possible in the offshore NC waters this evening as a cold front north of the area stalls. S winds will increase near the sea breeze with gusts up to 20 knots possible. Wednesday through Saturday...No headlines anticipated. Sfc high pressure remains well offshore Wednesday and Thursday leading to southerly flow over the coastal waters, up to 15-20 kt Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of an approaching cold front. The front crosses the area late Friday, but with weak CAA following the front winds should be no more than 10-15 kt into Saturday. Seas 2-4 ft through the period, which includes a steady 1-2 ft 7-8 second SE swell component. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...21 NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...21 MARINE...MAS/21