885
FXUS61 KILN 040605
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
205 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure moves away from the area, southerly flow will
bring warmer and more humid conditions. A cold front will
approach from the west and cross the region Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A somewhat cooler and drier airmass will move in
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Late evening update had slight adjustments to temps and sky
cover, otherwise the forecast remains unchanged.

With light flow and mostly clear skies, expect valley fog to be
quite efficient in developing through the overnight. Boundary
layer is drier than yesterday evening so widespread dense fog is
not expected. Temperatures are generally in the 60s overnight
with some upper 50s possible in river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Fairly sharp mid level ridge will extend from the Carolina coast
into the Great Lakes during the period. Weak short wave energy
will be riding up the ridge Tuesday afternoon ahead of a more
substantial short wave that will push into the area late
Tuesday night. The combination of the weak lead impulse along
with daytime heating will result in scattered showers and storms
pushing into the Tri-State later Tuesday afternoon. These
should diminish during the evening as instability decreases.
But additional showers and thunderstorms will start to move in
late Tuesday night with the stronger short wave.

Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s on Tuesday with some
spots possibly getting into the upper 80s. It will be warm and
humid Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A surface cold front and upper level trough will be moving through
the Ohio Valley at some point Wednesday night. Earlier guidance was
originally hinting at FROPA more in the Wednesday or Wednesday
evening timeframe, but the timing is shifting a bit later. This
means the area is now expected to be in the warm sector ahead of the
approaching system on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely during the day especially when peak heating (and instability)
overlaps increasing shear and forcing during the afternoon. Showers
and storms could then linger into the overnight prior to FROPA.
Conditions remain warm and humid on southerly flow until the cold
front passes through.

Thursday should feature descent CAA for early June behind the front
on westerly surface winds. Temperatures are expected to remain below
early June averages into the start of next week as upper level
troughing parks over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Periodic low
end chances for rain are possible each day with upper level
troughing across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will be found through the morning hours, with a
light rain or scattered showers working in from the southwest
towards 18Z at CVG/LUK. The lighter precip is noted to be
falling from an AS deck, with a bit of a higher precip rate
noted from 21Z-00Z where a vsby restriction and lower yet still
vfr cig is forecast.

It`s entirely within reason that some of this rain could
maintain as it moves northeast but enough of the models are
quite bullish on even the occurrence of rain. Went with the
drier forecast and kept a generally higher AS deck as prevailing
sky.

South winds will pick up a little during the afternoon and
generally remain from that direction through the forecast.
Afternoon winds should remain under 10kt, but a few intermittent
obs could push 12kt, particularly under any showers falling from
the mid deck that very well get entrained by the drier air it
would be falling through.

Not saying it`s out of the realm, but tstorm activity at the
tail end of the CVG period was removed given few deterministic
models were painting any precip at this time. MOS guidance were
suggesting low cigs at CVG beginning a little before daybreak
Wednesday.

A lot will be determined as the day progresses with regards to
occurrence/placement of showers and potential of more
overnight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Wednesday with
IFR ceilings possible. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday into
Wednesday evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Franks