844
FXUS61 KILN 032320
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
720 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As high pressure moves away from the area, southerly flow will
bring warmer and more humid conditions. A cold front will
approach from the west and cross the region Wednesday afternoon
and evening. A somewhat cooler and drier airmass will move in
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Isolated convection has developed in southeastern counties. With
negligible forcing, this activity should be short lived. Cumulus
across the area will dissipate with the loss of heating. Some
valley fog may develop overnight in southeastern counties. Lows
will be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fairly sharp mid level ridge will extend from the Carolina coast
into the Great Lakes during the period. Weak short wave energy
will be riding up the ridge Tuesday afternoon ahead of a more
substantial short wave that will push into the area late
Tuesday night. The combination of the weak lead impulse along
with daytime heating will result in scattered showers and storms
pushing into the Tri-State later Tuesday afternoon. These
should diminish during the evening as instability decreases.
But additional showers and thunderstorms will start to move in
late Tuesday night with the stronger short wave.

Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s on Tuesday with some
spots possibly getting into the upper 80s. It will be warm and
humid Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A surface cold front and upper level trough will be moving through
the Ohio Valley at some point Wednesday night. Earlier guidance was
originally hinting at FROPA more in the Wednesday or Wednesday
evening timeframe, but the timing is shifting a bit later. This
means the area is now expected to be in the warm sector ahead of the
approaching system on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely during the day especially when peak heating (and instability)
overlaps increasing shear and forcing during the afternoon. Showers
and storms could then linger into the overnight prior to FROPA.
Conditions remain warm and humid on southerly flow until the cold
front passes through.

Thursday should feature descent CAA for early June behind the front
on westerly surface winds. Temperatures are expected to remain below
early June averages into the start of next week as upper level
troughing parks over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Periodic low
end chances for rain are possible each day with upper level
troughing across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No major changes from the 18Z TAF. Scattered cumulus will
dissipate with the loss of heating. Some valley fog will likely
result in visibility restrictions at KLUK between 06Z and 13Z.
Cannot rule out a bit of mist at KILN as well. Other than that
VFR with some cumulus redeveloping late in the period. Winds
will be light southerly.

There are some indications that remnant shower and thunderstorms
activity may enter the area from the southwest late Tuesday
evening (after 00Z Wednesday) so included a mention in the
30-hour CVG TAF. Still too far out to know how much thunderstorm
coverage will occur.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday night
into Wednesday with IFR ceilings possible. Thunderstorms
possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...McGinnis