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000
FXUS61 KILN 141952
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
352 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will drop south into the area this evening and stall
out near the Ohio River overnight. Scattered showers and storms
will be possible will this front tonight and then again in
parts of northern Kentucky on Monday. Much above normal temperatures
are expected through most of the week, with periods of showers
and storms through at least midweek. Cooler and drier conditions
should return by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Northwest flow aloft with shortwave and surface low pressure
passing well north of the area thru the Great Lakes. A weak
front will drop south into ILN/s area this evening and stall
out near the Ohio Valley overnight. Strong WAA has allowed
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Strong
CAP is inhibiting the development of deep convection over ILN/s
area. As the front drops south there will be a window of
overlap where the CAP erodes and moderate instability of
1000-1300 J/KG looks to exist. Latest CAM solutions suggest that
the window is slightly delayed and the coverage of storms has
trended further east.

With an overlap of the moderate instby, and sufficient deep
layer shear - a few the storms could be strong to severe mainly
over ILN/s northeast counties this evening. The main impacts
will be damaging winds with favorable DCAPES >1000 J/kg and
large hail due to the steep midlevel lapse rates.

As the front slips south and instability decreases storms will
come to end by 06Z. A band of post frontal clouds will develop
along and north of the front.

Mild lows to range from near 50 north to the upper 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Stalled frontal near the Ohio River Monday with clouds along and
north of the front. The extensive early day cloud cover is
expected to scatter some as we head into the afternoon. South
of the front, more favorable low level moisture and daytime
heating will lead to the development of scattered convection.
ILN/s far southern counties across Northern KY look to be on
the northern periphery of the instability axis and the potential
for isold convection. Have a slight chance of a thunderstorm
across the far south during the afternoon.

Highs Monday will range from the lower 70s north to near 80
south of the Ohio River.

Leading edge of 20-25 kt southerly 8H jet to offer isentropic
lift and moisture increase across the far southwest overnight
Monday. Better coverage of storms to remain to our west with
a slight chance of storms encroaching north into southwest Ohio
and southeast IN late. Mild temperatures to continue with lows
from the upper 40s northeast to near 60 southwest.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front will be lifting north through the area on Tuesday east
of a low in the central Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along and near the front throughout the day until the front
lifts north of the area. Forecast soundings do not show a great
overlap of shear and instability, thus the severe risk remains
fairly low at this time. Winds shift to the south/southeast behind
the front and forecast highs reach into the 70s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances grow once again Tuesday night
through Wednesday evening when forcing increases ahead of the
eastward-moving low. Forcing appears to be fairly strong with a cold
front, a fairly strong vorticity max, and the poleward exit region
of a jet streak moving through the Ohio Valley. In this setup, shear
will be strong. If instability can overlap with diurnal heating, a
chance for strong to severe storms may develop. However, given
strong forcing and anomalously high PWATS, widespread rain may lower
the chance for instability developing on Wednesday.

The cold front likely passes through on Wednesday night bringing
chances for showers and storms to an end. Temperatures cool off
behind the front for the end of the week. A few chances for showers
are possible during the second half of the week as another
reinforcing cold front is possible.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions and gusty winds to continue thru the afternoon
in the warm airmass ahead of an approaching front.

As the front sags south into the area this evening hours,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. The best
coverage will be observed across the eastern TAF sites. Some
of the storms may contain strong winds and large hail.

VFR CIGs will continue thru most of the night with MVFR CIGs
developing late tonight into Monday morning. Ceilings will
improve to VFR from the north thru the day Monday.

Southwest winds of 15-20 kts, with gusts of 25-30 kts, to
continue thru the afternoon before subsiding to around 10 kts
early this evening. Winds will shift to the northwest around 10
kts later this evening and then becoming north to northeast at
5-10 kts Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR conditions are possible Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR