Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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704 FXUS61 KILN 031739 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 139 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen slightly as it amplifies northward today and overnight. Shortwave energy and a southerly flow may combine and spark afternoon shower activity and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely through Wednesday ahead of a cold front that crosses in the late day and early evening, marking the end of any precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... Scattered cumulus will persist across the area through the afternoon. Isolated showers have been trying to develop in northern Kentucky and this potential will continue for the next several hours despite weak forcing at best. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... An upper level trough and cold front will start approaching the Ohio Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night the northwest. Strengthening southerly flow develops ahead of the disturbance leading to increasing temperatures and moisture across the region. Overnight lows will only drop to 65 degrees give or take a degree or two. Highs are forecast to spike into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon in a humid airmass. Mid level impulses of energy passing northeast through the region on the fairly uniform southwest flow will interact with these receptive conditions to see some passing showers, particularly in the west and southwest. Sunshine in the air ahead of these impulses may add some instability in the afternoon, allowing some of these passing showers to contain some thunderstorm activity. Coverage and placement remains uncertain as both forcing and shear is weak. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid level flow backs with moisture increasing ahead of a shortwave moving into the Upper MS Valley Tuesday night. Precipitation chances increase Wednesday as the shortwave pivots thru the Great Lakes and a surface cold front sweeps east thru the Ohio Valley. Model solutions show moderate instability developing ahead of this front Wednesday when a few of the storms could become strong to severe. Mid and upper level low pressure settles into the Great Lakes Thursday offering a continued threat for showers. Model solutions show considerable spread in how progressive this feature is as we head into the weekend. Have followed a consensus solution keeping low chance pops going with a diurnal uptick during the afternoon. The highest pops have been placed over the northeast counties closer to the low pressure. Temperatures will be a little above normal Wednesday with highs from the upper 70s to the lower and middle 80s. Readings look to trend below normal by Friday with highs ranging from the lower 70s to the mid/upper 70s and then near normal Saturday and Sunday when readings are expected to top out between 75 and 80. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating. Some valley fog will likely result in visibility restrictions at KLUK between 06Z and 13Z. Cannot rule out a bit of mist at KILN as well. Other than that VFR with some cumulus redeveloping late in the period. Winds will be light southerly. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday night into Wednesday with IFR ceilings possible. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...