643
FXUS61 KILN 281740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
140 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will allow for off and on rainfall
chances through Wednesday. Dry conditions will then be present
Thursday through the start of Saturday before a more unsettled
weather pattern develops for the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper level disturbance will bring showers to the region
today. Radar indicates showers forming over NW Ohio and these
will begin to affect northern counties soon. There is some
limited instability expected, so kept a slight chance of
thunder. The greatest coverage in rain will be across northern
portions of the region. Temperatures should be slightly below
normal with highs in the low to middle 70s. Breezy conditions
will develop again during the day with some wind gusts upwards
of 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Multiple waves will work through tonight through Wednesday
allowing for off and on precipitation chances. Precipitation
will start to taper off Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.
There is some limited instability, however generally limited any
thunder mention to the daytime hours. Ad precipitation begins
to taper off there will be the potential for some river valley
fog Wednesday night.

The cooler pattern will continue through the short term with
lows in the 50s tonight, highs in the 60s to around 70 on
Wednesday, and then lows in the 40s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Thursday, another s/wv is forecast to pass southeast across our
region. However, the airmass associated with this disturbance will
have become much drier such that pcpn is not expected. With FEW-SCT
cumulus clouds, it will continue to be cool with highs ranging from
the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.

For Thursday night into Friday, high pressure at the surface and
aloft will build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Skies
will be mostly clear/mostly sunny. The coolest morning will be
Friday morning will light to calm winds (lows in the 40s, but some
lower 40s possible in the usual cold spots), followed by highs in
the lower to mid 70s.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will move off to the east
Friday night into Saturday. It now appears that a mid level s/wv
will move into our region during the day Saturday. This will bring
an increase in clouds, deeper moisture, and thus a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. After lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s, highs
will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

For Sunday into Monday, in a quasi-zonal pattern, moisture will
interact with episodic mid level s/wvs moving west to east through
the flow, keeping the threat for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. Under a southerly low level flow pattern, it will continue
to warm to more June levels (highs in the lower to mid 80s by
Monday with lows in the 60s) along with an increase in humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR is being observed to start the TAF period. Scattered showers
forming under mid level disturbances and affecting CMH and LCK
may spread south to ILN and DAY tonight to Wednesday morning,
along with MVFR ceilings. CMH and LCK could see widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday but kept as VCSH
for this issuance. CVG and LUK may escape those showers and
lower ceilings, though they will be monitored for possible
amendments. West to northwest winds gusting over 20 knots this
afternoon are forecast to subside tonight before rising to
around 10 knots on Wednesday. Will also need to monitor another
burst of short wave energy which could cause some brief wind
gusts tonight according to the HRRR.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Coniglio