Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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393 FXUS61 KILN 071736 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area through tonight, bringing dry but slightly below normal temperatures. A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will return later Saturday into Sunday morning as a weak upper level disturbance moves through the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Skies are clear this morning with high pressure centered to the west. In weak cyclonic low level flow and shallow moisture, expect to see some scattered cu development through late morning and into this afternoon. West to northwest winds will gust around 25 mph today in the relatively tight pressure gradient ahead of the high. Temperatures today will be a few degrees below normal with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure will build east across the Tennessee Valley through tonight. This will lead to mostly clear skies through much of the night although we may begin to see some higher level clouds spread in from the west late ahead of an approaching mid level short wave. This short wave will continue to move east across the Ohio Valley, but weaken through the day on Saturday. As a result, will only bring in slight chance pops across the southwest through the afternoon. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 70s southwest to the upper 70s in the northeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... This period will be largely characterized by troughing and cooler than normal temperatures, and the lack of hazardous weather. Near the end of the period, a warming trend to above normal will settle in. To wrap up the weekend, an elongated longwave trough will be stretched through the entirety of southern Canada, extending southward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Weak ripples within the zonal flow support a mention of rain Sunday. On Monday, a deeper shortwave will attempt to dig into the Ohio Valley, supplying a chance for more even cooler conditions. These cooler conditions extend into Tuesday. Through the middle to end of the week, a ridge attempts to build into the Ohio Valley, triggering a warming trend back into the 80s. A limiting factor is tied to a deepening trough which may delay the onset of a deeper/stronger ridge expected for the weekend into early next week. Currently, 00Z GEFS and ECMWF ENS have trended slightly less in magnitude with the ridge on Thursday/Friday, increasing uncertainty at how quickly the warm up will arrive. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR is expect to persist through the forecast. Mainly clear skies and gusty winds are forecast this afternoon. Winds calm down while clouds increase slightly tonight. For Saturday, a weakening disturbance moving from the west toward the Ohio River will cause mid clouds to move in. CVG may see some low clouds near the end of their 30 hour TAF. Kept showers out due to expected scattered nature. Winds from the south to southwest will average close to 10 knots Saturday afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...Coniglio/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...Coniglio