796
FXUS61 KILN 091916
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
316 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will move through tonight into tomorrow bringing
with it cooler temperatures. The below normal temperatures will
be short lived as above normal temperatures will start to move
in by the middle of the week and remain in place through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A boundary moving into the northern portions of the region has
allowed for an extensive cu field to develop. There are dry low
levels and therefore do not expect much if any precipitation to
reach the surface. Have a chance of sprinkles in near and north
of Interstate 70 through early evening, however probability is
low of any one location receiving any precipitation. In
addition, winds have started to gust and will continue to gust
into the evening hours before decreasing overnight. The
highest gusts will be near and north of Interstate 70.

The disturbance will keep some clouds around the region
overnight. With CAA overnight have temperatures dropping into
the low to middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A secondary disturbance works into the area on Monday and there
will also be CAA. The combination will lead to extensive cloud
cover along with cooler temperatures. Temperatures will be
variable around the area with highs ranging from the lower 60s
to the middle 70s. The coolest temperatures will be in a
corridor from Richmond to Bellefontaine. Far northwestern
portions of the area will see a late day temperature rise
bringing them up to the middle 60s, however the cooler corridor
might struggle to rise out of the lower 60s. Meanwhile,
southeast of Interstate 71 will see high temperatures likely in
the 70s. A few spotty light showers will be possible on Monday
with the secondary disturbance, however moisture is limited and
therefore only have a slight chance of rain showers.

Dry conditions are expected Monday night along with decreasing
clouds. With cool airmass still in place have low temperatures
in the middle 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expansive 500H ridging continues to move over the region at the
start of the extended period. This translates to continued dry
weather and an ongoing warming trend. High temperatures on Tuesday
reach the mid/upper 70s with some diurnally driven cu. Clouds may
thicken up a bit, particularly in the north, Tuesday night as a
passing shortwave swings through the larger flow, but no precip
concerns from this. Overnight lows in the mid 50s.

Surface flow returns to southerly on Wednesday and Tds begin to
creep back up as we head into the remainder of the week.
Additionally, gradual warm air advection takes over and
temperatures slowly climb as we head through the work week, with no
strong signals for precipitation. With that being said, as we near
the end of the period, signals become more and more muddled.

Guidance from the Climate Prediction Center gives us pretty good
confidence that we`re going to see a warm up near the end of the
working week. The question remains as to how much/strong of a warm
up. Some ensemble members suggest a disturbance up near the Hudson
Bay area that may drag a cold front through the Ohio Valley
sometime during the Thursday/Friday timeframe, which would dampen
(or rather, just delay) our warming trend. Should this scenario
materialize, we`d likely get some rain out of this system, but given
the suggestive progressive nature, it wouldn`t be enough precip to
alleviate the dryness (30 day rainfall departure from normal is
negative 1 to 3 inches for much of the Tri State).

Either way, as we head into the weekend, there is a decent consensus
that a substantial ridge will build into the eastern Midwest area.
Six to seven days out is still a ways away, but the blend is
consistently honing in on high temperatures in the 90s near next
weekend. Might be time to start reviewing our heat safety...

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cu will be present along with high clouds today. Wind gusts
around 20 knots will be possible at times this afternoon into
the early evening hours. VFR clouds are expected overnight as a
disturbance works through. There will also be the potential for
MVFR clouds during the day on Monday at some of the area TAF
sites. There is not a lot of moisture and therefore went with
dry conditions at the TAF sites.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Monday and Monday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...