Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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483 FXUS61 KILN 090533 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 133 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will keep a low threat for showers in the forecast tonight. Dry weather can be expected Sunday through Wednesday as high pressure settles slowly across the Ohio Valley. After a cool start Sunday through Tuesday, temperatures will rise back above normal on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Cold front from northwest Ohio to central Illinois will move southeast across the region through the night. This could generate a few light showers as it passes, although better forcing that is moving eastwards will stay north of the forecast area. It will remain warm until the front passes with lows ending up near normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Dry weather is forecast to continue Sunday and Sunday night. A ridge of high pressure Sunday will be followed by a cold front Sunday night that will contain insufficient moisture for precip to occur. Mostly cloudy skies in the morning are expected to become mostly sunny as the high moves in. Temperatures will be slightly below normal with highs in the mid 70s to around 80. Readings Sunday night are forecast to fall a few more degrees below normal, with lows in the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... H5 trough is well-pronounced across the eastern CONUS to start the work week. Heights continue to lower throughout the day on Monday and allow for relatively cooler air to settle in. Under this persistent northwesterly flow regime, Monday will be the coolest day of the extended forecast period as locations near and north of I-70 could observe highs only reaching the upper 60s. Surface high pressure will help maintain dry conditions as we head into Tuesday. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, this H5 trough will begin to propagate eastward and exit our fa. Temperatures will start to trend warmer on Tuesday as the mean trough axis shifts eastward, but relatively dry air at the surface continues as dewpoints remain in the mid-40s to lower 50s. Subtle H5 height rises ensue on Wednesday. Warmer and humid air will gradually build back into the Ohio Valley region. By Thursday, the air mass will turn even hotter as highs could climb back into the 90s for some. There is some evidence amongst global models that a shortwave could eject through the Great Lakes region on Friday. However, there is uncertainty if this forcing will be able to spawn showers/storms far enough south to reach out CWA. Otherwise, expecting that the bulk of the forecast period to remain dry. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak cold front will move southeast across the area through the early morning hours. A few showers will be possible with the front but any shower should be relatively light. Some MVFR cigs will develop behind the front for a few hour period through about daybreak. Drier air will then overspread the region through the rest of the day with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. As the front moves through, winds will swing around to the northwest. Some wind gusts to around 20 knots or so will be possible this afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible on Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...JGL