071
FXUS61 KILN 202330
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
730 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures to continue today with a few showers or storms
returning Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and
storms is likely Wednesday into Thursday with the approach and
passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler conditions are in store
for the end of workweek, although there may be additional
chances for showers and storms Friday into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Mid level ridge axis to continue settling slightly south and
east. Shortwave over WI to dampen out as it tracks thru the
Great Lakes around the periphery of the ridge this evening.
Most of the area will remain dry with an isold shower or storm
clipping the far northern counties into the early evening.

Scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds will wane with sunset.
Another shortwave over the Mid MS Valley to pivot thru the area
overnight. Expect to see some high and mid level clouds with
this feature. Can not rule out a shower spilling into the west
overnight but have continued a dry forecast going with the
consensus.

Another warm and humid overnight period with temps dipping into
the lower and mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another warm day is on tap for the area Tuesday. Mid level
shortwave tracks east of the area in the morning with some minor
height rises in its wake. Temperatures to generally top out in
the upper 80s. An isolated 90 degree reading is possible at the
typical warm spots.

While there will be slight chance for a few afternoon or evening
showers or thunderstorms across ILN/s northern counties most
locations will remain dry.

Mid level ridging should keep most of Tuesday night dry. As flow
backs ahead of trof have allowed for slight chance pops into the
west late. Mild lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active long term period is expected with multiple systems
moving through the region. There will be the potential for
ongoing weakening convection at the start of the day on
Wednesday. As is typical, how quickly this precipitation
decreases and how widespread it is will have an impact on
convective development during the afternoon hours. There is
expected to be some thunderstorm development during the
afternoon hours and then continuing into the evening and
overnight as a cold front continues to approach and move into
the region. Damaging winds will be the primary threat along with
heavy rain and subsequent flooding potential. In addition, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The front lingers and lays
out across the region on Thursday keeping the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Models are finally coming more into line for Friday with
additional moisture working into the area from the south and
bringing additional thunderstorms. While the details still need
to be resolved, models continue with an active weather pattern
through the weekend and into Memorial Day. With the stormy
pattern temperatures will be dependent on convection, however in
general expect high temperatures in the 70s and 80s through the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions remain in place throughout the TAF period (the
exception is LUK, with the possibility of some early AM fog).

Recent satellite imagery shows high cirrus blow off currently
overspreading the region from west to east with the afternoon
Cu field dissipating. Southwesterly winds decrease to 3-5 knots
during the overnight hours.

Diurnally driven Cu develop again on Tuesday and linger through
afternoon hours, along with some cirrus. Winds remain out of the
southwest, around 10 knots. Cloud coverage decreases Tuesday
late afternoon.

The next system begins to move in from the west near the end of
the TAF period; winds respond by shifting to out of the south
and have shown this in longer CVG TAF.


OUTLOOK...Gusty winds likely on Wednesday with rounds of storms, MVFR/IFR
CIGs, and similarly reduced VSBYs Wednesday through Thursday
morning. Additional chances for thunderstorms are possible
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA