Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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493 FXUS61 KILN 011952 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 352 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will move into the area on Sunday. It will stall and weaken further allowing high pressure to build in by Monday. An unsettled pattern will then develop for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Short wave emerging out of the mid Mississippi Valley will weaken and broaden as it heads east overnight. Large area of showers extending from Michigan to middle Tennessee will spread into the area late this afternoon and this evening. But with time expect coverage to decrease as forcing weakens. Some showers will continue into the late night. Instability is pretty marginal and there has been very little lightning upstream. Cannot rule out some embedded thunder, but it seems like a fairly remote chance at this point. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Lingering mid level troughing will be slow to exit, perhaps not getting east of the area until Sunday evening. Meanwhile, an ill defined front will push into western counties during the day. This will stall and eventually wash out. Forcing overall will be weak, but there will be plenty of low level moisture in place. So there will continue to be some showers about the region although they should be isolated to scattered. There is some question about how quickly low clouds may decrease. Consensus seems to be that there will be some improvement in the afternoon although the possibility of it remaining mostly cloudy cannot be ruled out. If there are sufficient breaks to allow for some heating, then some instability may develop which could allow for a few thunderstorms, if anything develops along the diffuse boundary. Any remaining showers will diminish Sunday evening. Highs will be dependent on cloud cover with the current forecast indicating mid 70s, a bit cooler in the east and a bit warmer in the west. Lows will once again fall into the lower 60s most areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The Ohio Valley will be between weather systems to start the work week on Monday. Upper level flow is modeled to be almost non- existent and the surface pressure gradient is weak. Rain chances are expected to be around 20% or less. Forecast highs are in the lower 80s with weak southerly flow in place. This stagnant setup continues into Monday night although rain chances may increase toward late evening with weak diurnal instability. Forecast lows fall into the middle 60s. The synoptic setup begins to become more dynamic Tuesday and especially into Wednesday. By Wednesday, an upper level trough and surface cold front are expected to be diving into the Ohio Valley from the northwest. These approaching disturbances should initially help to increase southerly flow ahead of them on Tuesday into Tuesday night which corresponds with increasing PWATs. Chances for rain do exist on during this Tuesday/Tuesday night timeframe although instability and shear remains very weak. Better chances for showers and storms will likely be on Wednesday ahead of the front when better forcing overlaps with moisture, instability, and shear. Temperatures and rain chances drop behind the cold front at some point on Wednesday/Wednesday night when winds shift to the west and broad upper level troughing develops over the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are forecast to remain below average with anomalous upper level troughing persisting through the end of the week. Rain chances will increase again Thursday/Thursday night when a second cold front moves through the area. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR will continue through the early part of the TAF period. Showers will spread into the region after 23Z but gradually become less organized as they spread northeast overnight. Conditions will initially stay VFR as showers begin, but lower levels will moisten resulting in ceilings falling below 2kft as well as with some MVFR visibilities. While precipitation will diminish overnight, persistent low level moisture will likely result in ceilings falling to IFR towards or even a bit after 12Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceiling will occur Sunday afternoon and could possibly linger into Sunday night and Monday morning. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...