Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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334 FXUS63 KIWX 290238 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1038 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool conditions with periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight into Wednesday, best chances in the morning. - Dry weather is expected Thursday and Friday but more rain chances increase this weekend into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Line of mainly sub-severe convection (winds to 40 mph and small hail) along a low level trough is finally beginning to weaken as it nears the IN/OH border. One cell in northeast Jay Ct IN did briefly take off with accumulating quarter size hail and a reported wall cloud. Otherwise showers and embedded thunder will focus more into north/northeast zones overnight before shifting back to the southeast Wednesday morning as the system deformation/fgen axis pivots south. Forecast in good shape otherwise with minor tweaks to hourly temps/PoP. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A broad trough and collocated cold temperature anomalies over the Great Lakes shifts eastward between this evening and Thursday bringing times of showers and storms as various areas of vorticity pinwheel through the area. After this morning`s vort max shifted eastward, the break allowed for additional sunshine and surface heating ahead of a second vort max for this evening between 6pm and 10pm. There is a 25 to 30 kt low level jet that passes by to our southeast, but that`s fairly weak for shear for storms to tap into. Given windows of mid level lapse rates between 6 and 7 C/km can see hail as a possible storm hazard as well as wind with moisture loaded microbursts. SPC`s marginal appears warranted as despite the weak shear, perhaps a storm or two could put out outflow boundaries that could aid downstream storms. These showers and storms are expected to linger into tonight, but the severity of such storms is expected to die off. Showers and storms are also expected to continue into Wednesday as the main vort max shifts slowly eastward around the base of the trough. Negative theta-e pushes into the area behind an instability trough during the afternoon Wednesday, but shear is expected to be lacking. Instability driven thunderstorms will be capable of gusty winds and locally heavy rain during this time. Finally, one last vort max slides through east of I-69 on Thursday. At this point, expect much drier conditions with dew points back in the 30s and 40s. Surface high pressure is quick to follow allowing for drier conditions across a good chunk of the forecast area. Friday comes with the greatest confidence of an all clear call with surface high pressure overhead and sliding eastward through the day. With the high pressure center just east of the forecast area later Friday, expect warm air advection to ensue and bring us back up to the mid 70s for highs after being in the upper 60s and low 70s in the days prior. A couple of days ago, this ridge was much broader, but an area of low pressure is expected to eject into the Southern Plains Friday and infringe on its western periphery. A strung out area of vorticity is located on the western periphery of the mid level ridge and this is expected to slowly trek towards the area somewhere between very early Saturday (ECMWF camp) and Saturday afternoon (GFS camp) bringing a renewed chance for showers and potential thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 622 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Scattered showers and storms remain on target to impact the terminals tonight, possibly lingering into Wednesday morning, as a rather potent shortwave and area of convergence pinwheels through northern IN. Primarily VFR through the early overnight outside of any convection where brief visby restrictions will be possible. Trailing deformation/fgen band then drops through later tonight into early tomorrow with MVFR to low VFR cigs and continued shower chances. Improvement/mixout to all VFR and somewhat stronger northerly winds (10-15 knots) expected otherwise behind this system late morning and afternoon on Wednesday. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 5 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046. && $$ UPDATE...Steinwedel DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Steinwedel