459
FXUS63 KIWX 080920
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
520 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers today, more numerous near the Michigan
  border, ending tonight

- At this time, the only chance for rain this upcoming week is
  Thursday night which includes a chance for showers and storms.

- Cool today through Tuesday with highs in the 70s, becoming
  very warm Thursday into the following weekend with highs in
  the 80s. 90s possible late.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

An upper level system was just upstream from IL to far east KS.
This system will move east today and bring showers to the area.
Continued to keep thunder out given the lack of instability and
insufficiency of larger scale lift. The GFS has been consistent
with this system and still favors timing in about a 9 hour
window from 18Z to 03Z early tonight per 305K isentropic analysis.
The back/west side of the upper trof will remain over the region
until upper level ridging builds into the area later in the week.
Have kept the lone chance for showers/thunder Thursday night as
a weak front moves southeast. There is an increasingly stronger
signal for a hot pattern to develop just past the end of the
forecast period as reflected in the latest CPC outlook (risk of
excessive heat). Otherwise, highs will be in the 70s through
Tuesday then highs in the 80s the rest of the week. Given 850 mb
temperatures approaching 20C, highs in the lower 90s are possible
just past the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions expected to give way to a period of MVFR cigs
and scattered showers (best chances at KSBN) late this afternoon
into this evening as a cold front sags south into northern IN.
Southwest winds will pick up otherwise in advance of the front
late this morning and afternoon with gusts near 20 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel