626
FXUS63 KIWX 311100
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
700 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today; beautiful late-Spring weather with highs in the upper
  70s.

- Rain arriving Saturday morning, lingering through the night.

- Warmer Monday through Wednesday with frequent chances for
  showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

High pressure remains in control through Friday night, giving way to
a broad area of low pressure crossing the Mississippi River. Today
promises to be another beautiful late-Spring day with highs
outpacing those of Thursday. High clouds will slip in through the
day as the aformentioned low nears.

Rain spreads in from southwest to northeast after daybreak Saturday.
Therefore, a dry start to the weekend for those in northwest Ohio or
south-central Michigan where rain is delayed until very late in the
afternoon and evening. Those locations have a shot a reaching the
mid-70s as well (especially northwest Ohio) as a warm front attempts
to lift north through Lake Erie. The progress of this warm front
will impact temperatures greatly. Our current forecast represents
the 50th percentile of guidance; though the 15-degree spread in
guidance should be noted. Highs will be stuck in the upper-60s for
northwest Indiana. As the previous forecaster noted, the chance for
thunder is low with very little instability and poor lapse rates.
Instead, heavy rain is a concern due to boundary-parallel flow
along the cold front and PWATS near 1.5". Rain totals Saturday
through Sunday morning will total 0.50 to 1 inch.

Gradually drying out Sunday with a quick rebound in temperatures as
zonal flow resumes aloft. Highs in the 80s linger into midweek.
Unsettled weather creeps into the forecast by this time too, with an
active mid-latitude jet running through the Northern Plains and
spilling into the Great Lakes. This bring showers and storms into
the forecast starting Monday night (perhaps as early as Monday
afternoon), becoming most widespread by Wednesday as a cold front
threatens to blast through. Thus, trending cooler to round out next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 700 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Strong ridge of high pressure and very dry air in the lower
levels will ensure VFR conditions through the period. High
clouds will increase through the period as the next trough
approaches and SE winds will increase slightly but remain below
10 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...AGD