322
FXUS63 KIWX 041746
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
146 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this afternoon followed by scattered showers
  and thunderstorms tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms persist through Wednesday afternoon.
  Some of these storms may be strong, particularly across
  northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio.

- Turning cooler starting Thursday with passing showers at
  times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Warm afternoon on tap today as riding over the midwest leads to
upper level height increases. Temperatures will top out in the
mid to upper 80s. A couple of showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this evening along the eastern flank of a slow moving
surface low / MCV currently over northeast Missouri. However,
better upper-level support arrives overnight into Wednesday
morning out ahead of a mid- level trough that is currently
moving out of the Central Plains. Precipitation chances (60-80%)
will be favored along the western half of the CWA. By late
morning and through the remainder of the afternoon hours, storms
will increase in intensity as they advance east out ahead and
along a cold front marching across the area. Instability and
synoptic support will be favorable, however marginal bulk shear
(around 25kt) and meager mid-level lapse rates will preclude any
bigger concern. Nevertheless, some strong to marginally severe
wind gusts will be possible due to steep low-level lapse rates,
particularly over NE Indiana and NW Ohio.

A prolonged pattern shift will round out the remainder of the
forecast period as an upper-level low meanders over the Great
Lakes region. Cooler temperatures and low rain shower chances
(10-20%) each day. Fortunately, no significant weather episode
is expected through this period.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR ceilings will persist for the next few hours, but mid level cumulus
clouds should start to build this afternoon in advance of
scattered showers/storms moving in this evening. Scattered
showers/storms will be hit or miss overnight, but have added
thunder at both terminals from 00-09Z Wednesday to account for
this. Ceilings will be MVFR to potentially IFR overnight and
Wednesday morning, with NBM probabilities of MVFR ceilings at
about 50-60%.Another round of rain/storms is likely Wednesday
afternoon as a cold front pushes through the forecast area.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Johnson