Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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983 FXUS64 KJAN 061738 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Today and tonight: Low pressure will begin to shift east as a cold front pushes south across the area today. Rain and storms will remain possible along and ahead of the front where moisture remains abundant, mainly the southeastern half of the area. Storms will gradually shift southeastward as the cold front continues to sag. Storms taper off tonight as a drier, post frontal airmass takes hold, with quiet conditions likely to persist over the next couple days./SAS Friday through Wednesday: A stronger than normal ridge of high pressure aloft will migrate from the Southern High Plains to over the Gulf Coast Friday into this weekend - shifting the focus for above normal temperatures towards our area especially for Sunday. As such, precip is not expected Friday or Saturday, but a "cold front" nudged southward into our forecast area Sunday afternoon/evening time frame is likely to trigger some amount of convection as it moves southward. At this time it appears that anticipated peak heat index values ahead of this front could be in the 100-105 degree range. If afternoon dew points hang on in the lower 70s before the front`s arrival without too much mixing, the heat threat could be enough to warrant a Heat Advisory for a part of the area. Regardless, it will be a hot day with potentially unstable air south of the arriving front. It`s conceivable that storms developing north of our area could make a run southward through the afternoon and evening hours, so have nudged the Slight Chance POPs a little farther south compared to NBM guidance on Sunday and boosted POPs some into Sunday night. Some chance for rain will linger around the Coastal regions through the middle of the week as an uncertain evolves with a few shortwaves rippling over the South. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A few showers and storms may be possible across the southeastern portion of the forecast area...otherwise no rainfall is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 88 70 89 63 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 89 70 91 62 / 30 10 0 0 Vicksburg 89 70 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 90 71 94 66 / 70 10 0 0 Natchez 88 69 91 66 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 91 72 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 90 70 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ MJH/MJH