421
FXUS64 KJAN 131449
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
949 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

No changes have been made to the forecast this morning. Current GOES-
16 visible satellite imagery show a few high cirrus clouds over the
area, but clouds will dissipate later this afternoon. Surface high
pressure ridging and dry northerly flow will continue to prevail
across the ArkLaMs region today. The combination of clear skies
and daytime heating will help afternoon highs peak in the upper
80s to low 90s across our CWA. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Today and tonight...Surface high pressure ridging and dry
northerly flow will continue to prevail across the ArkLaMs today
and tonight. H500 heights will continue to increase across the
region, with hotter temperatures this afternoon. Highs today will
mostly be in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the mid
60s./15/

Friday through late next week...

Dry conditions will persist through much of the weekend under the
influence of high pressure. Given this dry air in place, deep
boundary layer mixing will likely lead to very warm temperatures,
mid to upper 90s. By Saturday, high pressure over Texas moves
overhead and 850/925 temps around 20/26 should yield widespread
surface temperatures in the upper 90s, with some 100s possible as
well. Conditions are being monitored and a heat advisory may
eventually be needed. However, I hesitate to say this for Saturday
as dry dewpoints will tend to mitigate heat threat a bit, despite
the higher temperatures. This may change Sunday however as moisture
begins to recover resulting in less mixing. Despite the slightly
cooler temps Sunday (cooler is relative mid 90s are still likely),
heat indices could be higher.

By Sunday, high pressure begins to shift east and will start to wrap
moisture back in, setting us up for a wetter week ahead. Given this
increased moisture, upper 90s near 100 temps will be confined to
northern areas where drier air is in place and better mixing is
likely. Further south across the Pine Belt, scattered rain and
storms will be possible in the presence of better moisture as a wave
pushes across. Things seem to have trended later compared to 24
hours ago, and rain and storm chances may be later than initially
anticipated, evening into the overnight hours.

A tropical airmass should continue its northward push next week, as
high pressure shifts over the east CONUS. Given this steady stream
of moisture, rain and storm chances will stick around. With PWAT
potentially in excess of 2 inches, heavy rain rates will be possible
so flash flooding could be possible if trends hold. Additionally,
with the upper steering flow around the high, will have to monitor a
disturbance in the western Gulf that could see some development over
the next 7 days. The likeliest threat this would pose to our area
would be a risk for flash flooding across our southern counties in
the vicinity of the HWY 84 and HWY 98 corridor. Confidence is low,
however, so will give more details when available./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions and light northerly winds will prevail through the
period./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  67  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      92  66  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     90  66  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   94  69  97  73 /   0   0  10   0
Natchez       88  66  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    91  68  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     90  66  95  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/SAS/15/CR