119
FXUS64 KJAN 122342 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
642 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Tonight and Thursday:

Surface ridging will continue to influence our weather, keeping
quiet and dry conditions around for tonight and Thursday. Mostly
clear skies with overnight low temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s are expected tonight. The surface ridge is expected to
begin amplifying over the region Thursday, resulting in the start of
a warming trend for afternoon temperatures over the coming days.
High temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s. /SW/

Thursday Night through next Tuesday...High pressure and ridging
aloft will build into the region from the west, and will remain in
control of our weather into the weekend.  As a result, quiet
conditions will prevail across the forecast area through the
remainder of the work week and into the upcoming weekend.  By
Sunday, and continuing through Tuesday, high pressure will reside
east of the forecast area. Chances for isolated to scattered showers
and storms will be on the increase across the forecast area during
this time as moisture begins increasing.

Rain chances Monday into Tuesday will be further enhanced by deep
gulf moisture, associated with a tropical wave over the southwest
Gulf of Mexico, spreading northward into the forecast area. The
better coverage of convection will be during the afternoon hours as
a result of daytime heating.  However, some isolated to scattered
convection will remain possible each night Sunday through Tuesday as
our airmass will remain warm and unstable during that time.

As far as temperatures are concerned, a drier airmass will remain in
place across the CWA through Saturday. However, temperatures will
steadily become warmer each day, with more humid conditions expected
Sunday into early next week.  While lows Thursday night will
generally be in the 60s, as we get into the weekend and early next
week, they`ll warm into the low and middle 70s.

Then for highs, after a few days of highs struggling to get out of
the 80s and lower 90s, they`ll top out in the mid and upper 90s on
Friday and the upper 90s to around the century mark Saturday into
Sunday.  These high temperatures Saturday and Sunday, factored with
increasing moisture across the CWA during that time, could result in
the threat for increased heat stress across at least a portion of
the forecast area. This will continue to be monitored in upcoming
forecasts, and a "Heat Advisory" may need to be hoisted for portions
of the area this weekend. With good rain chances currently
advertised over the CWA both Monday and Tuesday, highs currently
look to be held in check as they range from the mid 80s to lower
90s. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  90  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      62  93  67  97 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     62  90  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   66  93  70  97 /   0   0   0  10
Natchez       63  89  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    62  92  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     62  91  66  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/19/22