658
FXUS64 KJAN 292348 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
648 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Through Thursday: A small convective system has continued to move
east into southwest portions of the forecast area as of early
afternoon. It has been producing some strong wind gusts, but
expect these storms to diminish as they move farther east into
more stable air. Overnight, there is some guidance suggesting
redevelopment of showers along a warm front pushing north across
the area, so it wouldn`t be surprising if we see an uptick in
convective rainfall late tonight and perhaps into the early
morning along some west- east oriented axis (e.g., recent
HRRR/ARW2 suggest along the I-20 corridor). As we go through
Thursday, a warm, moist, and unstable environment along a slowly-
shifting frontal boundary will support additional
shower/thunderstorm chances during peak heating hours. As of now,
there are no signals for significant MCVs/perturbations moving
across that might enhance the convective potential and increase
the risk for strong/severe storms. /EC/

Friday through Wednesday: More of a summer-like active weather
pattern is expected around the region through the early parts of
next week. Generally southerly flow in the low levels as surface
high pressure drifts across the eastern CONUS into early next week
will keep moist and unstable air flowing into the Gulf Coast and
Southern Plains regions. Guidance points to two upper-level low
pressure systems slowly moving east from the Plains toward the
Great lakes in that time frame - one passing east of our area
Friday night into Saturday and the other sometime Sunday into the
early part of next week. These and any other minor disturbances
will interact with the moist air mass in place to support diurnal
convection. There could be some better flow at times, with mid-
level speeds around 20-30 kts, while tapering off between waves.
PWAT values will meanwhile rise into the 1.6-2.0 inch range and
support locally heavy downpours. At this time, a highlighted
Marginal Risk for severe storms is out for much of the area on
Friday, but can definitely foresee additional Severe Storm
Outlooks being needed as details come into alignment. Microbursts
producing localized damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain will
be a possibility through the middle of next week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Afternoon activity is coming to an end with just some lingering
TSRA over the far SE areas. Much of the TAF period will be VFR,
but sites across our far S could see some MVFR vis or brief
ceilings between 10-14z before VFR conditions return. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  84  67  88 /  30  40  30  30
Meridian      65  83  65  88 /  30  30  20  10
Vicksburg     67  85  68  87 /  40  50  40  40
Hattiesburg   68  89  67  90 /  50  30  20  20
Natchez       66  87  68  87 /  20  50  40  40
Greenville    69  84  69  87 /  30  50  30  40
Greenwood     67  83  67  87 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/NF/CME