604
FXUS62 KJAX 051720
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
120 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Currently, as of 2 AM, decaying showers are drifting eastward across
inland SE GA and may linger another or so with the weak support of
diffluent flow aloft. Once activity finally fizzles out, skies will
trend mostly clear and set the stage for mostly sunny conditions
later this morning.

After days of little steering flow, today will mark the
transition to a southwesterly flow as the ridge axis associated
with low level ridge, centered to the east, begins to drift
south. Deeper moisture will leak eastward and PWATs of 1.5-1.75"
will be redistributed across the entire forecast area. That
moisture will elevate diurnal instability today and aid in
convective developments along the sea, gulf, and river breezes
this afternoon. Due to the changing steering flow the Atlantic sea
breeze will not be as progressive today resulting in an eastward
shift in the corridor of scattered showers and t`storms. CAMs are
in fair agreement on a sea breeze interaction late this afternoon
roughly along the US-301 corridor. Anticipate the more robust
storms, capable of gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph, occasional
lightning, and slow-moving downpours, to be along that corridor
before drifting toward the beaches as they weaken during the early
evening. There is some potential for additional storms into the
evening and possibly beyond midnight as a compact shortwave lifts
across SE GA; however, anticipate that with the loss of heating
that convection coverage will be only isolated to widely scattered
at best after sundown.

Building heat and a slower Atlantic sea breeze will promote a warmer
day with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and in the upper 80s at
the immediate coast. Tonight, temperatures will fall back into the
low 70s under mostly clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)

Mid level troughing moves in from the west over the region in the
afternoon/evening coupled with a frontal boundary at the surface
will produce higher chances for precipitation and isolated
thunderstorms. SE GA will have chances of 60-70% while NE FL will
see chances around 50-60%. Day time temperatures in the low to mid
90s area wide cooling into the 70s overnight. Friday, A cold
front approaches SE GA from the northwest and moves through the
area into the evening, bringing chances for precipitation and
isolated storms along the front as it makes its way over the
region. Daytime temperatures will be in the 90s cooling into the
upper 60s to mid 70s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)

The cold front looks to settle just south of the area saturday
and weaken by Sunday morning. Chances for convection over the
weekend will be around 10-20% in the afternoon for NE FL Saturday
and Sunday with SE GA having 15-20% chances Sunday afternoon and
into the evening. Next week looks to be a wet one as another front
looks to make its way in at the beginning of the week and stick
around into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Scattered convection will develop this afternoon and evening
along the diurnal sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence,
likely occurring near the I-95 corridor. Flow pattern will become
less stagnant with winds gradually becoming more out of the SW-W
by the end of the forecasted period with east coast sea breeze
winds not pushing much past I-295 today. Showers and storms are
expected to begin developing at around 19-20z today with storms
crossing through the Jax Metro area by around 22z with remaining
convection dispersing and moving offshore by around 04z. Potential
for patchy light fog forming during the early morning hours on
Thursday with sites GNV and VQQ most likely to be affected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Initially VFR conditions today with diurnal convection starting
to develop by around 19z this afternoon. Strongest storm
developments will occur along the sea breeze boundaries and areas
of convergence later in the afternoon with storms crossing through
the Jax Metro area by around 22z with remaining convection
dispersing and moving offshore by around 04z. Winds will build
from out of the southeast this afternoon and will become more mild
and variable after nightfall.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will be to the east today and gradually push away
through the end of the week as a cool front arrives Friday night.
Offshore, winds will trend southerly today while nearshore
direction turn easterly or east-southeasterly with the sea breeze.
Ahead of the cold front winds will turn offshore and keep the sea
breeze pinned at the beach. This will enhance thunderstorm
chances in the nearshore waters Thursday afternoon. The cold front
will push through the waters Saturday before it stalls and
dissipates to the south on Sunday. Winds will turn offshore once
again early next week as another cool front approaches from the
north and this front may stall across the local waters through the
middle of next week.

Rip Currents: Despite fairly low surf, as the sea breeze develops
there will be a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all beaches. On
Thursday, offshore flow will lower risk to a low-end Moderate risk
at NE FL beaches and a Low Risk at SE GA beaches.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites on
Thursday and Friday:

                June 6      June 7
              ----------------------
Jacksonville    99/1985    100/1993
Gainesville     100/1927   99/1985
Alma, GA        101/1985   98/1993
Craig Airport   99/2011    96/1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  92  72  93 /  30  70  40  20
SSI  74  93  75  93 /  10  50  60  30
JAX  71  96  72  97 /  30  50  40  40
SGJ  73  95  74  95 /  20  50  40  60
GNV  69  94  71  95 /  30  50  30  60
OCF  71  95  73  94 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$