Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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526 FXUS62 KJAX 031134 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 734 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Quick early morning update to account for land breeze showers moving offshore of the NE FL and SE GA coast. With diurnal heating, this activity will fade through 10 am, then winds become onshore with the inland progressing east coast seabreeze. Light 1000-700 mb SW steering flow (5 kts) was already producing convection near the Gulf Coast in Apalachee Bay with local land breeze. With such light steering flow, meso/micro scale sea and river breezes will develop today, although the east coast sea breeze along the SE GA coast and JAX Beach north may be delayed a little bit given broken mid clouds moving offshore. Higher rain chance will focus this afternoon and early evening between the Highway 301 and I-75 corridors where boundary collisions occur within a PWAT of 1.6-1.7 inches. Deeper convection will tend to drift back to the east, with convection gradually fading in coverage with loss of instability. Temperatures today will range from highs in the mid/upper 80s coastal areas to low 90s well inland. && .NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)... Quiet conditions are set to continue through the rest of the morning hours with mostly clear skies. Ridge axis extending from an elongated area of high pressure centered over Bermuda will continue the onshore flow and progressive Atlantic sea breeze once again today. Enough moisture seeping eastward will combine with convergence along the sea breeze to initiate showers as it quickly moves inland early this afternoon. Widely scattered t`storms are more likely to develop late this afternoon and early eventing near the I-75 corridor and locations to the west where the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze interaction will occur. Significant storms are not expected as most activity will be garden-variety in nature. Convection will diminish quickly with the loss of heating and instability this evening with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will push back into the 90s at inland locations while the coast benefits from the early afternoon sea breeze push, keeping highs in the mid 80s. Lows tonight will track similar to this morning with readings in the upper 60s inland and low 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Surface high pressure ridging covers the area Tuesday through Wednesday night creating a bit of a stagnant flow. Any precipitation will likely occur in the afternoon due to diurnal heating and the sea breeze. Chances for afternoon showers and storms Tuesday will be 30-50% area wide with daytime temperatures in the low 90s, staying slightly cooler along the coast. Overnight temperatures will cool into the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday, chances for afternoon showers and storms will be 50-60% with daytime temperatures in the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Temperatures continue to increase as the week progresses, reaching into the upper 90s for some areas of NE FL by Thursday and sticking around into the beginning of next week. Increasing temperatures and moisture in the area will bring chances for precipitation and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chance occurring Thursday afternoon of 60 percent. A cold front looks to make its way through towards the end of the week, though timing and impacts are still uncertain at this time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Land breeze showers will near SSI over the next 1-2 hrs where TEMPO SHRA was advertised. Otherwise, deck of mid clouds will press offshore through late morning, as diurnally enhanced cumulus pop inland. With light steering flow, both Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea breezes will develop with VCSH for all terminals. As the breezes shift inland, post sea breeze gusts near 15 kts are expected. Boundary mergers will focus the best chance of TS inland this afternoon and evening with the best chance of TS near GNV, but will monitor trends radar for potential inclusion. Convection fades will loss of diurnal instability, with VFR conditions overnight except at the usual suspect spot VQQ due to shallow ground/fog mist toward 12z where brief IFR conditions were advertised. && .MARINE... High pressure to the northeast will continue southeasterly winds across the waters with winds strengthening with the afternoon sea breeze development across the nearshore zones each afternoon through Thursday. Flow turns offshore late this week as a cold front approaches from the north. That front should push into and through most of the area waters Friday night into Saturday before eventually stalling somewhere south of St Augustine. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase across the waters late this week as flow becomes offshore and chances will continue into the weekend in the vicinity of the stalled front. Rip Currents: Slightly elevated surf and onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk of rip currents at all area beaches through Tuesday, particularly during the afternoon hours as winds strengthen with sea breeze development. && .HYDROLOGY... Water levels will continue to gradually fall along lower portions of the Santa Fe River, with minor flooding expected to continue near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 90 68 92 70 / 20 30 50 20 SSI 85 73 86 74 / 30 10 30 20 JAX 89 69 90 69 / 20 10 30 10 SGJ 87 70 88 72 / 20 10 30 10 GNV 90 67 92 68 / 50 20 40 10 OCF 91 68 94 69 / 50 30 50 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$