Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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517 FXUS62 KJAX 220654 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 254 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low stratus and patchy to areas of fog will develop until just after sunrise with light easterly winds a bit higher at the coast 8-12 mph and 5-10 mph inland as weak high pressure ridging settles across the Atlantic waters just east of the GA coast. A few brief, transient showers may develop along the westward moving Atlantic seabreeze, especially west of highway 301 where some stronger low level instability will be located, but by and large dry air aloft and subsidence will prevent organized shower development through this afternoon and overnight. Highs will be warmer by a few degrees compared to Tuesday with upper 80s inland to around 90 over north central FL and mid 80s at the coast. Tonight, skies will begin mostly clear with low stratus and patchy fog developing late. Lows will be near to a bit above normal with mid to upper 60s inland and low 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Upper level ridge will be over the forecast area during this period, leading to dry conditions with a warming trend. High temperatures Thursday will be 85-90 east of I-95 corridor to the coast, lower 90s further inland. High temperatures Friday will be in the lower- mid 90s inland, upper 80s coast...above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Upper level ridge over the area will be flattened by shortwaves passing over GA and the Carolinas this Weekend. These waves could bring small rain chances to our forecast area, with better chances N of the area. A significant pattern change occurs Mon-Wed as intense upper trough develops over the eastern U.S...bringing greater rain chances Tue-Wed. Latest consensus guidance keeps above normal temperatures for the area Mon-Tue, with somewhat lower temperatures Wed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 The 06Z TAF period will begin with MVFR to IFR ceilings and fog inland with VFR conditions along the coast. Very light east northeast flow from a low to the east and high pressure near the Outer Banks of NC is bring few low clouds onshore 1.0 to 2.0 kft that will transition to low stratus further inland through sunrise with MVFR fog and IFR ceilings that may lower to IFR/LIFR fog and ceilings at times, so have marked tempo groups at GNV and VQQ for IFR/LIFR restrictions with IFR ceiling potentially at JAX from 08-11Z and MVFR ceiling potentially at times at SSI for low end MVFR ceilings. After sunrise, easterly winds will increase to 7-10 knots through midday as high pressure ridge sinks to just north of the area today with the Atlantic seabreeze moving inland to CRG/JAX/VQQ by 17/18/19Z. Not expecting coverage of any brief showers to warrant VCSH as of this TAF forecast, but may adjust in the upcoming forecast. Low stratus inland will lift to MVFR 12-14Z and then become VFR after 15/16Z with high cirrus above moving in from the northwest, then cloud cover dissolving from the coast westward to inland areas through this afternoon. Easterly winds 10-12 knots will subside after sunset to 4-6 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Today, high pressure ridging will shift into the Southeast Georgia waters with easterly light winds, then shift into the Northeast Florida waters Thursday with southerly winds turning southeasterly and increasing nearshore due to the Atlantic seabreeze circulation which will continue each afternoon from Friday through the weekend. Winds will become more southwesterly early next week with storm chances increasing as a cold front approaches form the northwest. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Thursday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 68 91 70 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 83 72 85 72 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 87 69 91 70 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 85 70 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 90 67 92 68 / 10 0 10 0 OCF 91 68 93 69 / 0 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$