Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
164 FXUS62 KKEY 260847 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 447 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 447 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 It has been a quiet night across the Florida Keys. KBYX radar is quiet and GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics imagery is showing some cumulus throughout the Keys early this morning. Temperatures along the Island Chain are mainly in the lower 80s with the Big Pine Key RAWS down to 76 degrees so far. The Keys are currently in a col region this morning which is an area in between two stronger weather systems with weak synoptic flow in between. Therefore, weak high pressure remains out over the western North Atlantic which nudges into the Keys from time to time along with a strengthening low pressure system over the South-central Plains. Due to this, marine platforms around the Keys are observing light and variable winds of 5 knots or less and 5 mph or less on land. .FORECAST... The pattern for the next week is not expected to change all that much with weak high pressure remaining out over the western North Atlantic. This high will continue to be the main driver for the Keys weather through the upcoming week, including the Memorial Day holiday. This will lead to light to gentle breezes mainly out of the southeast, variable at times. Breezes are expected to lull in the afternoons and peak during the overnight into the early morning hours through at least Tuesday. Moisture is expected to remain rather scarce through much of the week, therefore, a dry forecast remains from today through Monday night. Slight chances (10%) creep into the forecast beginning on Tuesday continuing through Thursday, though, subsequent updates may lead to a dry forecast for these time periods as well. For Thursday night through the first half of the weekend (Saturday June 1- Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins), slight chances (10%-Thursday night, 20%- Friday through Saturday) was maintained as the lower level moisture becomes a little deeper as seen on model cross sections. Thunder was also maintained as statistical guidance remains consistent on the risk for at least slight chance of thunder. In terms of temperatures, today should be fairly similar to yesterday as the upper level ridge isn`t quite over us yet. Beginning Monday and continuing through at least Wednesday, the eastern periphery of the upper level high will move overhead resulting in another stretch of hot and steamy weather. However, right now it appears dew points remain low enough (mid 70s) to not warrant any Heat Advisories. However, we will continue to watch this. Expect daytime highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower 80s. Lastly, a weak frontal boundary is expected to stall out across the North Gulf Coast for mid to late week. Strong high pressure is expected to build in behind this front which will help to nudge the weak boundary southward down the Florida Peninsula and into the Keys late week into the first half of the weekend. This will be one of the catalysts to increasing moisture across the area as well as increasing easterly breezes. Slightly cooler temperatures (near 90 by day, near 80 by night) and dew points (lower 70s) are anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 447 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes generally out of the southeast to south will continue through today, and will periodically become variable in direction due to the light nature and effects of daytime heating. High pressure will gradually shift east today through Monday. This will allow for breezes to modestly surge during the overnights tonight and Monday and lull each afternoon. As this high slides further east on Tuesday, breezes will slacken and will go light and variable at times. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 447 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both EYW and MTH. Light winds will remain variable in direction until after sunrise when they will become, and maintain, a uniform southeasterly direction. && .CLIMATE... On this date in Keys Weather History, in 1899, H. R. Boynton, an observer with the Weather Bureau office in Key West, recorded details of the occurrence of numerous waterspouts in the vicinity of the island on the morning of the 26th. His observations and drawings of the event were published in the national scientific journal "Monthly Weather Review". && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 91 82 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 91 81 93 81 / 0 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest