768
FXUS62 KKEY 161446
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1046 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1046 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
After a strong morning shower moved through Key West near
daybreak, KBYX radar shows just a couple tiny showers across the
distant Straits of Florida southeast of Woods Wall. There is also
a small area of very light stratiform rain across the Bayside
waters north of the Middle Keys, though, it is probably not
reaching the surface. GOES 16 Visible satellite imagery shows
mainly altostratus across much of the Keys with some
cumulus/stratocumulus streaming from southeast to southwest across
the western Straits of Florida. Temperatures along the Island
Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s
to near 80 degrees. Surface high pressure centered over New
England continues to build southward this morning. With lower
pressure across the Caribbean and Mexico, a tightening pressure
gradient has led to east breezes increasing to 10 to 15 knots
across the Reef with Island Chain communities observing 10 to 15
mph.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
The 12z morning sounding showed a small moist layer between 975 mb
to 950 mb with dry air above this layer to around 600 mb with a
fairly saturated profile from 600 mb up to 250 mb. Wind profile
shows mainly east winds from the surface up to 850 mb. PWAT
measured was 2.18 inches which is above the 90th percentile of
2.04 inches. Therefore, the only catalysts for showers that can
be thought of would be speed convergence or direction convergence
so 20% seems appropriate. As a result, no changes to the ongoing
forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1046 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) for Increasing winds
are headlined across the Florida Keys coastal waters this
afternoon, except for eastern Hawk Channel, Florida Bay, and the
eastern Straits. The next week looks to bring a prolonged period
of breezy conditions to the Keys with the potential for Small
Craft Advisories especially across the westernmost waters.
Therefore, Small Craft Advisory may be required tonight was
headlined for the western Straits. From synopsis, gentle to
moderate breezes this afternoon will gradually increase over the
next couple of days due to high pressure building in from the
north and falling pressures near the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of
Campeche. Moderate to fresh breezes will continue through mid week
with winds tending stronger especially across our southwestern
and western waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1046 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the
TAF period. Skies will gradually clear through the remainder of
the day and only a slight chance of rain in the forecast, however,
brief instances of MVFR CIGS are possible this morning. Winds
will be the challenge of the day, as they are struggling to reach
their potential this morning. Over the past hour, they have
finally begun to increase, so have elected to keep mention of
gusts in both TAFs. Otherwise, winds will remain generally out of
the east.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1906, a Category One Hurricane moved slowly to the
north-northeast crossing what is now the Seven Mile Bridge.
Instrumentation in Key West recorded a minimum pressure of 29.62"
and a peak wind of 42 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  82  89  83 /  30  20  20  30
Marathon  88  82  90  82 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB

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