Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
494 FXUS62 KKEY 050754 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 354 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretching westward along the northern Gulf Coast is maintaining gentle easterly breezes. Weak mid level troughing has pushed off to the east with zonal flow in place aloft. This evenings sounding indicated a moderate precipitable water of 1.59 inches with ample CAPE and limited inhibition. However, low level forcing was weak and low level moisture lack luster. While there has been a number of shower clusters with a few embedded thunderstorms, they have all dotted the far reaches of the forecast area and no where near land. Conditions are slightly warmer than normal in the lower 80s with seasonable dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Forecast - A mid latitude trough swinging through the eastern United States over the next couple of days will nudge the lower level ridge axis southwards across Florida. This along with the ridge weakening will result in winds trending downwards and clocking a bit further southeast. Expect slight to low precipitation probabilities due to expected development of lower level inhibition and increasing Cuban shadow effects. Expect only minor shifts in sensible conditions are expected with highs remaining in the upper 80s to near 90 with dew points possibly picking up a degree or two. The surface ridge will remain stretched across South Florida an the Keys through the remainder of the week. Winds will generally be light to gentle out of the south, but considerable variability is expected due to the ridge being weak and diurnal heating influences. Meanwhile, the mid and upper levels will become broadly cyclonic as a small nearly cut off southern stream trough aloft rides eastward through the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, then out into the Atlantic. Uncertainty is quite high for this weekend. The sprawling low will continue to slowly pinwheel eastward through eastern North America keeping the lower level ridge across our latitude. In addition, the southern stream shortwave trough will contribute to a considerable weakening of lower tropospheric ridge across the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, global guidance suggests deep tropical moisture will begin to be pulled northwest and northward around the Atlantic ridge`s western periphery. They also suggest surface troughing will amplify over the Yucatan potentially leading to some tropical development. All forecast variables for the Keys will be highly sensitive to the exact evolution of this synoptic/mesoscale pattern. For now will maintain currently forecast trends. && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 An Atlantic surface ridge stretching westward along the northern Gulf Coast will shift southward over the next couple of days. As a result, gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes will slacken further and likely become variable at times. This ridge will remain suppressed southwards across South Florida and the Keys through the remainder of the week and the weekend. This will keep generally light to gentle breezes out of the southeast to south, but still with variability. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Data Acquisition.....Jacobson Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest